Analysts have raised their average copper forecasts for this year and 2026, as concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs have boosted prices, although they are expected to ease in the coming months as inventories and output rise, a Reuters poll showed.

The London Metal Exchange cash copper (CMCU0) contract should average $9,500 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of 2025, a median forecast of 26 analysts showed, up 2.7% from the forecast in the previous poll in July of $9,250.

The metal is expected to average $9,525 over the whole of 2025 and $9,796 in 2026.

The fourth quarter LME forecast, however, is around 2.5% lower than the current benchmark price.

LME copper prices have rebounded by about a fifth from their lowest in over 16 months in April, partly bolstered by 50% tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on imports.

Copper on the U.S. Comex exchange touched record highs this month, expanding its premium to LME prices ahead of proposed U.S. import tariffs due to start on August 1.

“The copper market is gradually adjusting to the ‘new normal’,” said analyst Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank.

She noted that stocks in LME-registered warehouses were rebounding after withdrawls bound for the U.S. to take advantage of higher prices driven by the planned duties.

“Another negative factor is that copper production in China continues to rise rapidly,” Nguyen added.

Analysts cut their consensus forecast of a market surplus in 2025 of the metal, which is often used as a barometer of the global economy, to 40,000 tons from 60,560 tons in the previous poll.

WEAK ALUMINIUM DEMAND
U.S. tariffs are expected to dampen demand for aluminium, which is used for transport, construction and packaging, but a narrowing market surplus and relatively low inventory levels will support to prices, analysts said.
“There is little in the way to convince us that aluminium has much upside potential in the near-term,” said Natalie Scott-Gray at StoneX.

“Fundamentals are tilting bearish with high U.S. prices hurting domestic downstream demand, while ex-U.S., the outlook for a higher tariff environment is suppressing global consumption.”

LME cash aluminium (CMAL0) is expected to average $2,500 a ton in the fourth quarter, little changed from the forecast in the previous poll of $2,518, but down 5% from the current price.

Analysts trimmed their market balance surplus consensus in 2025 to 200,000 tons from 280,000 tons in the previous poll.

ZINC OVERSUPPLY
Zinc has been the worst performing LME metal so far this year as mines have increased output of the metal mainly used to galvanise steel.

“A rebound in mine supply and the resulting supply surge has led to an increase in refined production, especially in China,” said independent consultant Robin Bhar.

Analysts expect LME cash zinc (CMZN0) to average $2,700 a ton in the fourth quarter, up 1.9% from the previous poll forecast of $2,650, but down 4.1% from the current price.

They have boosted their consensus for a global zinc surplus in 2025 by more than sixfold to 80,000 tons from oversupply of 12,000 tons in the previous poll.
Source: Reuters