The container shipping market is currently showing conflicting trends as time charter rates remain robust while spot rates continue to decline. Despite this, one liner raised its forecast for 2025, contrasting another’s lowered financial projection.

Clarksons Research reports that the Containership Timecharter Rate Index is holding strong at 198 points, a peak beyond levels seen outside the COVID-19 pandemic. Hamburg’s New ConTex confirms firm and healthy rates across all segments.

“The charter market remains stable across most sectors during the summer,” stated broker Braemar.

In contrast, spot market rates have been falling for nine consecutive weeks, with the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index decreasing by 4% last Friday to 1,490 points—60% lower than last summer’s peak. Moreover, transpacific eastbound rates have dropped to pre-Red Sea reroute levels.

Last week, Maersk, the second-largest container line globally, revised its 2025 earnings forecast upward, expecting EBITDA between $8 billion and $9.5 billion, fueled by unexpected demand resilience amid trade tensions. CEO Vincent Clerc remarked how demand remained solid despite market volatility.

Conversely, Ocean Network Express (ONE), ranked sixth in global liner rankings, reduced its forecast by $400 million due to ongoing geopolitical and economic hurdles.

The industry is also grappling with potential long-term overcapacity, as global fleet growth outstrips demand. According to Xeneta, the fleet size index has risen to 145 points from a 100 baseline in 2019, while shipping demand only increased to 113 points. Even accounting for increased teu-miles around the Cape of Good Hope, demand is just at 130 points.

Xeneta cautioned against further freight rate declines amid overcapacity, while Linerlytica analysts expect this supply-demand gap to persist through 2029.