prices rose 0.43% to settle at 254.15, supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and stronger economic data from China. Optimism was further lifted after Beijing pledged to stabilize industrial growth, while traders kept a close watch on developments in China-U.S. trade talks. Although the Chinese government stopped short of announcing direct consumer stimulus, it reaffirmed its commitment to loose fiscal and monetary policies, alongside infrastructure-focused manufacturing projects, including the CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric dam that is expected to boost demand for industrial metals. Supply concerns also underpinned prices, with European markets already facing tight availability due to sanctions on a major Russian producer.

China’s aluminium production in June 2025 fell 3.23% month-on-month, though operating capacity remains at high levels in July. On an annual basis, June output rose 3.4% to 3.81 million tonnes, while production for January–June totaled 22.38 million tonnes, up 3.3% year-on-year. On the trade front, China’s July exports of unwrought aluminium and related products rose to 542,000 tonnes from 489,000 tonnes in June. In Japan, Q3 aluminium premiums dropped 41% to $108 per tonne amid subdued demand, while port inventories fell 4.3% in June to 316,700 tonnes.

The market is in short covering mode, with open interest declining 2.87% to 4,088 contracts while prices gained 1.1. Immediate support lies at 253.2, with a break below exposing 252.2. Resistance is seen at 255.1, and a move above this level could open the way for a test of 256.
Source: Kedia Advisory