China’s iron ore imports are on track in June for their strongest month this year, showing a resilience that isn’t being mirrored in the sluggish steel sector.

China, which buys about 75% of global seaborne iron ore, is expected to import almost 110 million metric tons of the key steel raw material, according to commodity analysts LSEG and Kpler.

Arrivals in June are estimated by Kpler at 109.56 million tons, while LSEG is forecasting 109.1 million.

This would be up about 11% from May’s official imports of 98.13 million tons and would be the strongest month since December’s 112.49 million, which was the second-highest on record.

The question is why are Chinese steel mills and traders buying more iron ore even as the steel sector shows signs of slowing amid both domestic and foreign headwinds?

The answer likely lies in price moves, with spot iron ore slipping to the lowest in eight months early in June.

Iron ore futures on the Singapore Exchange have been trending lower since the high so far in 2025 of $107.81 a ton on Feb. 12.

They dropped to $94.17 a ton on June 18, the lowest since Sept. 30, before recovering slightly to end at $94.30 on Wednesday.

The low in June is too late to have any impact on imports this month, given the lag between when cargoes are arranged and when they are delivered, but it’s worth noting that the Singapore price has been dropping steadily since its last peak in the middle of May.

Another factor that may have driven higher imports in June is re-stocking of inventories, which have been trending lower.

Port stockpiles monitored by consultants SteelHome fell to a 16-month low of 132 million tons in the week to June 6.

The strong imports seen so far this month have helped lift inventories to 133.4 million tons in the week to June 13, but this is still 9% below the 146.6 million from the same week in 2024.

While there may still be some scope to add to inventories in coming weeks, there have to be questions as to how long iron ore imports can continue to show strength if the steel sector is soft.

STEEL SAGS

China’s steel output dropped sharply in May to 85.55 million tons, down 6.9% from the same month last year, according to official data released on June 16.

For the first five months of the year steel production has slipped 1.7% to 431.63 million tons.

It may also continue to decline in coming months, with the state-backed China Iron and Steel Association saying last week that output is expected to decline 4% this year from 2024.

China’s steel demand is being crimped by the ongoing struggles of the key property sector, which is showing little sign of responding positively to recent stimulus measures.

China’s new home prices fell 0.2% month-on-month in May after showing no growth the previous month, according to Reuters calculations based on data released on June 16 by the National Bureau of Statistics.

There are also worries about the export-focused manufacturing sector, which is facing higher tariffs from the United States, with the latest statements from President Donald Trump suggesting up to 55% will be levied on all imports.

Steel prices have also been trending lower, with Shanghai Exchange rebar contracts RBF1! ending at 2,982 yuan ($414.74) a ton on Wednesday, down 14% from the peak so far this year of 3,466 yuan on Feb. 5.

The contract hit the lowest since February 2020 on June 3 when it dropped to 2,912 yuan a ton.

The steel sector would probably be doing worse if it wasn’t for the strength in exports, which jumped almost 10% year-on-year in May to 10.58 million tons.

For the first five months of the year steel exports rose 8.9% to 48.47 million tons, a record for this period.

The problem for China’s steel exports is that they may become a victim of their own success as other countries ramp up protectionism, with India and the United States being current examples.
Source: Reuters