Indian Oil Corp. will have robust volumes of oil products to export in the next 4-5 years as ongoing refinery expansions will leave room to cater to overseas markets after meeting the demand at home, Anuj Jain, IOC’s director of finance, said on the sidelines of APPEC.

“Until now, mainly the private refiners have been exporting the bulk of the products from India, but we can foresee opportunities for IOC to play a bigger role in the oil products export market in the future, after meeting domestic demand,” he added.

IOC is looking to scale up its annual group refining capacity from the current 80.75 million mt (1.62 million b/d) to 98.4 million mt (1.98 million b/d) by 2028, with expansions in its Panipat, Barauni, Gujarat and Digboi refineries. On the petrochemicals segment, annual capacity is set to rise to 13 million mt by 2030, from the current 4.3 million mt.

To support the expanded capacity, IOC is enhancing its pipeline network from over 20,000 km to more than 22,000 km through 21 ongoing projects, while also significantly upgrading marketing infrastructure, storage facilities, and last-mile delivery systems.

Even other Indian state-run refiners could witness similar opportunities.

“Not just IOC, but other state-run Indian refiners are also putting up additional capacity to match the increase in demand and robust GDP growth. In intervening times, refiners will get an opportunity to export petroleum products,” he added.

Comfortable price range

Commenting on the demand outlook, Jain said oil marketing companies were comfortable when crude prices hovered between $55/b and $70/b.

“These kinds of price levels help to keep our margins robust. At the same time, our crude diversification strategy is also helping,” Jain said.

Commodity Insights forecasts that rising crude oil production, modest demand growth and a slower pace of stock building in China will lead to a greater supply surplus and bring Dated Brent prices below $60 before the end of 2025. In 2026, a higher inventory level and plentiful supply mean prices will struggle to average above $60/b. Currently, the 2026 annual average price for Dated Brent stands at $56/b, but upside risks could push prices above $70/b.

IOC Chairman Arvinder Singh Sahney said in a recent interview that said that a few years ago, IOC was buying crude from 27 geographies but today the refiner is sourcing crude from 40 geographies, including Brazil and Guyana.

In addition, IOC was adopting a crude import strategy that emphasizes a higher proportion of spot contracts, aiming to leverage evolving geopolitics and changing supply flows to optimize purchases for its expanded refinery and petrochemical operations.
Source: Platts