Dutch and British wholesale gas prices ticked lower on Monday morning amid a steady supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and mild, windy weather limiting demand, but fresh Russia-related sanctions remain an upside risk.

The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub (TRNLTTFMc1) was down 0.46 euro at 32.19 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $11.07/mmBtu, by 0843 GMT, LSEG data showed.

The Dutch day-ahead contract (TRNLTTFD1) was down 0.10 euro at 31.90 euros/MWh.

The British front-month gas price (TRGBNBPMc1) fell 1.28 pence to 79.15 pence per therm, while the day-ahead price (TRGBNBPD1) eased by 1 pence to 78 p/therm.

“We expect prices to trade sideways, amid stable near-term supply but tightening signals later in the week,” LSEG analyst Oleh Skrynyk said.

Germany’s Emden gas receiving terminal will start planned maintenance on Thursday, while wind output will ease in the coming days, increasing gas for power demand, Skrynyk specified.

European gas inventories at 80% full, solid LNG inflows and mild, windy weather forecasts point to lower gas prices this week, Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said in a morning report.

Geopolitics and potential sanctions represent an increasing upside risk, especially any U.S. reaction to exports from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic 2 LNG plant, that have helped keep global LNG prices down and indirectly compete with U.S. LNG, Rasmussen added.

A fourth cargo from Arctic LNG 2 was discharged at the Chinese port of Beihai on September 14, four days after a third LNG vessel departed, LSEG ship-tracking data showed.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States was prepared to impose fresh energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO nations ceased purchasing Russian oil and implemented similar measures.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract (CFI2Zc1) was down 0.36 euro at 75.41 euros a metric ton.
Source: Reuters