The University College of London Shipping and Oceans Research group and Kuehne Climate Centre have released a new online shipping stranded risk tool at New York Climate Week. The new analysis and tool, uses newer data, including wider range of temperature scenarios and transport demand, ability for ships to repurpose to carrying other cargo commodities and shows the level of stranded asset risks for different fossil fuel carrying ships, exposure of the top stock exchanges and shipowning nations exposed to these risks.

“The objective for this monitor is to provide owners, investors, and other stakeholders of the shipping value chain with simple and accessible high-level fleet-wide estimates of the future overall supply and demand balance for fossil-carrying ship types,” the creators explain on their homepage.

Creators of the free-to-access Shipping Transition website claim the $48bn invested in LNG carriers could be written off by 2035 as they will be in oversupply in a 1.5°C climate scenario with declining fossil energy use.

Besides LNG tankers, the research also covers oil tankers and LPG tankers which show a lower risk profile, not least to their better ability to switch to other cargoes.

Maarten Biermans, partner at Prow Capital, said: “Anyone active or contemplating becoming active in the financing of these types of vessels is well advised to study and use this tool to the max. It will help financiers to map and avoid stranded assets while also improving their conversation with regulators.”

The tool also provides insights to where the financial risk is concentrated. 75% of the whole fleet of fossil fuel carrying vessels sits on corporate balance sheets in the top 10 shipowning countries, with Japan, South Korea, Greece, and China potentially among the most exposed.

Not only do companies based in the United States have a high risk from fleet ownership, but the New York Stock Exchange is also the largest trading place for companies that own fossil fuel carrying ships, covering about 12.5% or $42bn of the total current estimated value of the existing fossil fuel carrying fleet.