Shaky economic growth combined with growing global oil inventories are set to lead VLSFO prices to their lowest level since 2020 next year.

Ship & Bunker‘s latest global average bunker price forecast shows VLSFO averaging about $493/mt in Q4 2025, before dropping to $413/mt in Q1 and to $411/mt in Q2. 2026 as a whole will see an average price of $414/mt.

The forecasts for Q1 and Q2 2026 are price levels not seen since December 2020.

Q4’s global forecast is down by $16/mt since the previous prediction, made in July, while Q1’s is down by $64/mt.

Consensus is beginning to form in the oil market that the world is heading for significantly lower crude prices next year, in particular in the first half of 2026, and as a result the bunker industry looks set to see its lowest prices since the COVID-19 era. Increased production by OPEC+ producer states is playing a large part in expectations of excess supply.

To view the full set of 2025-2026 quarterly forecasts for VLSFO, HSFO and MGO at Singapore, Rotterdam, Fujairah and Houston, as well as on a global basis, click here.