In 2024, oil demand grew by a considerable 1.5 mb/d, driven mostly by solid economic activity in non-OECD countries and regions, primarily by China and Other Asia. In 2025, global oil demand growth is forecast to stand at a healthy 1.3 mb/d, reaching an average of 105.1 mb/d, reflecting continued robust economic growth. In the OECD, oil demand in 2025 is forecast to rise by around 130 tb/d. Within the region, OECD Americas is forecast to lead growth, increasing by about 160 tb/d, y-o-y, and OECD Europe is forecast to grow by about 30 tb/d, y-o-y.

However, OECD Asia Pacific is forecast to show a decline of around 60 tb/d, y-o-y. In the non-OECD, oil demand growth in 2025 is forecast at around 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y. This is driven by Other Asia, with an expected healthy oil demand growth of about 280 tb/d, y-o-y, and China with an increase of around 180 tb/d, y-o-y. Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are forecast to increase by around 200 tb/d, 145 tb/d and about 140 tb/d, y-o-y, respectively, while India is forecast to grow by 100 tb/d, y-o-y. In terms of refined products, transportation fuels are expected to drive global oil demand growth in 2025, with jet/kerosene forecast to grow by around 380 tb/d, y-o-y.

Diesel is projected to grow by around 300 tb/d, y-o-y and gasoline is forecast to increase by around 280 tb/d, y-o-y. In petrochemical feedstock, LPG is set to lead growth with an increase of 330 tb/d, y-o-y, with naphtha rising by around 180 tb/d. In contrast, heavy distillates are projected to decline by around 120 tb/d (see Graph 2). Ongoing improvements in airline activities in OECD are expected to support jet/kerosene, driving oil demand growth in 2025 by around 120 tb/d, y-o-y.

With the exception of NGLs/LPG and jet/kerosene, all other product categories in OECD have not yet managed to reach 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Indeed, demand for NGLs/LPG in the region is forecast to increase by around 140 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2025. Notably, gasoil/diesel is forecast to increase by around 40 tb/d, y-o-y, due to expected improvements in the manufacturing sector. In the non-OECD region, demand growth is expected to be led by increases in transportation fuels, y-o-y. Gasoline is forecast to grow by around 270 tb/d, y-o-y, closely followed by diesel and jet/kerosene with an increase of around 250 tb/d each. Naphtha is forecast to grow by around 200 tb/d, y-o-y, and NGLs/LPG is forecast to increase by around 190 tb/d.

The continued robust economic activity in Other Asia, continued recovery in global air travel, and expected healthy petrochemical feedstock requirements will all be keys to oil demand growth in 2025. However, uncertainties, including inflation levels, monetary tightening measures and sovereign debt levels, are to be monitored closely. In 2026, the world oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 106.5 mb/d. Within the regions, the OECD is forecast to grow by around 150 tb/d, y-o-y, and the non-OECD is expected to increase by over 1.2 mb/d. In terms of products, gasoline is expected to lead oil demand growth at around 430 tb/d, y-o-y, followed by jet/kerosene at around 360 tb/d, y-o-y. Petrochemical feedstock (i.e. LPG and naphtha) is forecast to grow by a combined 400 tb/d, y-o-y, and diesel is projected to increase by around 190 tb/d.
Source: OPEC