Dutch and British wholesale gas prices traded sideways in a narrow range on Tuesday, amid strong supply from Norway and liquefied natural gas (LNG), softening demand due to warmer temperatures, and ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine.

The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub (TRNLTTFMc1) was down 0.32 euro at 29.45 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $9.95/mmBtu, by 0920 GMT, LSEG data showed. The contract fell on Monday below 30 euros for the first time since May 2024.

The British day-ahead gas price (TRGBNBPD1) was 0.25 pence lower at 77.75 pence per therm.

LNG sendout is expected to rise by around 90 GWh/d with upcoming cargoes to the Netherlands and Belgium. Norwegian production remains stable, with no new outages scheduled this week and total gas demand is broadly unchanged, said LSEG analyst Dzmitry Dauhalevich.

Temperatures across Northwest Europe are forecast to remain steady on the day ahead at 3 degrees Celsius, rising to 5 degrees over the weekend and 6 degrees on the working days next week.

Local distribution zone consumption, which refers to domestic demand for heating, is adjusted down by 169 gigawatt hours per day to 4324 GWh/d on the day ahead, and by 98 GWh/d to 3711 GWh/d over the weekend, LSEG data showed.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Ukrainian officials sought to narrow the gaps between them on Monday over a plan to end the war in Ukraine, after agreeing to modify a U.S. proposal that Kyiv and its European allies saw as a Kremlin wish list.

While the news has influenced market sentiment, the outcome remains uncertain given previous failed negotiations with Russia, LSEG’s Dauhalevich said.

European net gas storage withdrawals dropped yesterday, but they are expected to increase slightly today, analysts at Engie’s EnergyScan said in a morning note.

EU gas storage inventories are 78.68% full, compared with 87.90% last year.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract (CFI2Zc1) was down 0.50 euro at 79.91 euros a metric ton.
Source: Reuters