By Sing Yee Ong (Bloomberg) — Seaborne shipments of liquefied natural gas to China in November are set to drop for a 13th straight month on an annual basis, extending a slump in purchases as domestic output and piped imports remain strong. 

Deliveries are expected to be around 5.81 million tons, according to Kpler, an analytics firm that tracks shipping data to make forecasts. That’s about 5.5% lower than the same month last year, according to Chinese customs data.

China’s LNG demand has been soft this year, with buyers shying away from expensive seaborne cargoes of the super-chilled fuel in favor of cheaper piped gas from Russia and Central Asia. Domestic production has also been robust.

There will likely be no urgent need for China to dip into the spot market even as winter sets in. Early forecasts show normal to mild temperatures across the country, which has already secured the heating fuel it will need for the next few months via long-term contracts. 

China was the world’s top importer of the fuel last year, and sluggish demand is raising concerns about a global glut later in the decade as new projects come online in several countries. Even if lower prices entice Chinese importers, the country is still unlikely to absorb all the new LNG and an oversupply would persist in the coming years, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

More News:

• Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand is seeking to purchase an LNG cargo on a DES basis for Jan. 28-30 delivery to Thailand
• Indian Oil Corp. is seeking to purchase an LNG shipment on a DES basis for Jan. 11 delivery to the Dahej terminal
• QatarEnergy Trading sold an LNG cargo on a DES basis to BP for Jan. 14-16 delivery to Northeast Asia, according to traders monitoring the S&P Global Platts market-on-close platform
• Woodside Energy Group Ltd. will work with the Timor-Leste government to study the potential of a new liquefied natural gas hub in the resource-rich Southeast Asian country
• Spot freight rates extended a surge as increasing exports from North America tied up more vessels
  • Costs to hire a tanker for a journey in the Atlantic Ocean jumped to $150,000 per day, the highest since Dec. 2023, according to data from Spark Commodities

Drivers: 

• China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 209k tons on Nov. 23, ~2.3% lower than a year ago, according to ship-tracking data
• European gas storage levels were ~79% full on Nov. 22, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~89%
• Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 245k tons/day on Nov. 22, 54% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data
• Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~17.8 bcf/day on Nov. 24, +0.4% w/w: BNEF

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