Russia’s crude oil exports from its western ports are expected to decline in January from the previous month on higher domestic refinery runs and possible weather-related disruption, two industry sources said, although drone attacks on energy infrastructure may see export plans revised.

Oil loadings could drop by some 8% in January from the December plan, Reuters calculations show.

Shipments of Urals, Siberian Light and KEBCO crude grades via the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk are seen at about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), down from around 2.4 million bpd in the December plan, according to trading sources and Reuters calculations. December’s figure was boosted by volumes carried over from November, sources added.

“The western ports have been running near full capacity in recent months,” one industry source said. “But January exports could be revised higher if there are unplanned outages at Russian refineries hit by drone attacks.”

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have forced some refineries to halt operations temporarily, potentially freeing up more crude for export.

However, ice restrictions in Baltic ports and storms in the Black Sea can disrupt winter loadings.

Russia’s oil exports remain an important source of revenue for Moscow, which has redirected flows since Western sanctions were imposed over its military action in Ukraine. The potential volatility in January shipments could impact regional supply and prices for Russia’s flagship Urals grade, traders said.
Source: Reuters