As costs rise and forecasts shifts, owners are seeking designs that balance opportunity across offshore wind and oil and gas. Jon Inge Buli, Head of Offshore SGA, Wärtsilä, explores how vessel owners and designers can build resilience into new tonnage to hedge risk and capture opportunity across these two sectors.

Resilience depends on adaptability, a principle increasingly evident in Wärtsilä’s offshore market analysis. For projects commissioned in 2021 to 2022, offshore wind costs have jumped by about 80 percent compared with initial estimates, according to Bloomberg and Pareto Securities Equity Research. Forecasts for cumulative installed offshore wind capacity in 2035 have been revised down by roughly 12 percent, with the deepest cuts in the United States and other new entrant markets, and a five percent reduction in Europe. These shifts are forcing developers, charterers, and vessel owners to re-examine earlier assumptions about costs, utilisation, and risk.

Renewable energy offshore wind farm turbines with passing maintenance supply vessel ship. Windfarm on the sea horizon with boat sailing between towers. Sustainable resource green power development.

While higher costs are creating pressure, overall investments have not dried up. Capital continues to flow into oil, gas, and wind, with data from S&P Global and Clarksons showing that much of the near-term spending is already committed. For shipowners and designers, this resilience presents an opportunity if vessels are designed to operate across markets with the flexibility to withstand changing demand cycles.

Balancing design and economies amid market shifts

The offshore fleet spans a wide range of vessel types including wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs), heavy lift crane vessels, commissioning service and construction support vessels, anchor handling tug supply ships, PSVs, jack ups, semi submersibles, drillships, and cable layers. Every segment continues to see demand, even as market patterns evolve.
Offshore wind in particular continues to draw investment, but capital is tightening due to inflation, higher financing costs, and greater risk premiums. Oil and gas remains stable, primarily driven by demand from the Americas, MEA and SEA, creating a market where demand fluctuates between vessel segments.
Commissioning service operation vessels (CSOVs), once short in supply, have seen a surge of newbuild activity in recent years with a clear trend emerging towards building more CSOVs. This has created a risk of short-term overcapacity, especially as utilisation in the offshore wind sector was forecast to fall below 60 percent, according to S&P Global. Purpose built wind vessels are now finding employment in oil and gas projects, illustrated by Petrobras’ anticipated tender for such vessels, according to Clarksons.
For shipowners, this environment highlights the importance of vessels that can bridge markets, extend their operational profile, and reduce exposure to downturns in any single segment. Design choices around size, endurance, and hybridisation are becoming critical in determining how effectively a vessel can safeguard revenue across cycles.

The offshore orderbook reflects both optimism and caution. Some segments are experiencing speculative growth, while others have slowed pending greater stability in financing and day rates. Geography adds another layer of complexity. Brazil remains a hotspot as the largest offshore market, with a significant Petrobras Newbuild tendering process underway and vessel term chartering opportunities in all segments very evident, according to Clarksons data. The Middle East also shows robust activity, while the United States offshore wind market remains at a near standstill in the short term.

In addition, market consolidation is reshaping the competitive landscape. Mergers such as Cadeler and Eneti and Havfram and DEME are creating larger integrated players that will influence vessel demand, design trends, specification standards, and pricing.

Designing for resilience and efficiency

As projects move further offshore and turbine sizes increase, vessel capacity must evolve in tandem. Thruster performance, dynamic positioning systems, and overall propulsion architecture are important factors that improve both safety and efficiency. Optimised thruster placement and system architecture enhance operational reliability, while predictive maintenance reduces downtime risk.

Hybrid propulsion has become central to achieving these goals. Battery assisted systems are increasingly sophisticated, providing peak load balancing without compromising vessel performance. Aligning design with real life operational profiles helps reduce fuel consumption, extend equipment life, and lower maintenance costs.
The integration of hybrid solutions is already visible in newbuild tenders globally. For example, Brazilian subsea projects are now specifying hybrid readiness as well as direct current grid solutions, which allow for greater battery use and variable speed gensets. It is clear that tomorrow’s vessels must be designed for adaptability and operational resilience. These qualities not only improve efficiency but also enhance their attractiveness to charterers across multiple markets.

Jon Inge Buli – Head of Offshore

Tighter decarbonisation regulations driving flexibility

Although the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net Zero Framework (NZF) vote was postponed until later in 2026, investment in more sustainable shipping is expected to continue. While decision-making around the NZF may slow down, there remains a need to satisfy both regulatory and market demands for progress towards the IMO’s mid-century net-zero targets. Meanwhile, tighter regulations in other markets are driving the need for flexible vessel solutions. For example, the European Union has expanded its Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime framework to include offshore vessels above 5,000 GT trading in European ports. Offshore vessels between 400 and 5,000 GT trading in European ports will also be evaluated in 2027, but are now already under the EU MRV (Monitoring, Reporting and Verification) regulation.

In this environment, newbuilds are increasingly being specified for alcohol-based fuels and biofuels. Many of the Brazilian tenders, for instance, have seen some form of requirement for ethanol, whilst a significant portion of the orderbook for CSOV/SOV vessels are specified to be methanol ready. Hybridisation has also become standard with greater emphasis on battery integration to improve efficiency and reduce emissions. Compliance, commercial viability, and lifecycle efficiency now go hand in hand. Fuel choice is only one aspect of resilience, while hybrid power, modular layouts, and energy saving technologies form a more comprehensive pathway.

Financing remains a challenge. Offshore wind developers face high capital costs and delayed returns, while oil and gas projects continue to encounter investment constraints. Despite this, global offshore wind capacity stands at around 75 gigawatts with 7.7 gigawatts added in 2024, and forecasts suggest it could more than double by 2035. Oil and gas output is projected to grow in most regions, except for northwest Europe, according to GlobalData.

Integration, the path to resilience

The offshore market is becoming increasingly complex, shaped by regional disparities, shifting forecasts, and divergent investment cycles. Successful owners are those that embrace integration. Thrusters, dynamic positioning systems, engines, batteries, and monitoring tools cannot function in isolation; they must operate as an integrated system that supports lifecycle optimisation, cross market operability, and regulatory compliance. Modular, open architecture designs make it easier to retrofit vessels with new fuels, storage solutions, and digital systems as they mature, helping owners avoid costly mid-life conversions.

Ultimately, resilience in vessel design is more than operational flexibility; it requires hardware flexibility as well. Offshore vessels built with integration, efficiency, and adaptability in mind will be best placed to capture opportunities across both wind and oil and gas markets.
Source: By Jon Inge Bulli, Head of Offshore SGA at Wartsila