By the end of the Week 04, global bunker indices published by MABUX demonstrated a clear upward trajectory. The 380 HSFO index rose by USD 8.64, increasing from USD 405.68/MT last week to USD 414.32/MT. The VLSFO index gained USD 5.11, reaching USD 494.36/MT compared to USD 489.25/MT the previous week and moving closer to the psychological USD 500/MT threshold. The MGO LS index recorded the most significant growth, adding USD 12.93 and rising from USD 739.01/MT last week to USD 751.94/MT. However, as of the time of writing, early indications of a potential downward correction have begun to emerge in the global bunker market.

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—registered a moderate decline of USD 3.53, decreasing from USD 83.57 last week to USD 80.04. The index remains firmly below the psychological threshold of USD 100.00 (SS breakeven). Meanwhile, the weekly average value of the global SS index was virtually unchanged, edging down by just USD 0.07. In Rotterdam, the SS spread moved in the opposite direction, increasing by USD 5.00 to USD 60.00 compared with USD 55.00 last week, while the port’s weekly average value declined slightly by USD 0.33. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential also widened by USD 1.00, rising from USD 72.00 last week to USD 73.00, although the weekly average value at the port decreased by USD 0.84. Overall, SS spread indices continue to move in mixed directions without forming a clear trend. They remain consistently below the USD 100.00 level, thereby sustaining the higher economic attractiveness of conventional VLSFO consumption relative to the 380 HSFO plus scrubber configuration. We expect the SS spread to maintain its mixed dynamics in the coming week. Detailed data are available in the “Differentials” section on mabux.com.

By the end of the week, the Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) remained unchanged at USD 75.00, while its weekly average value increased by USD 10.83. In Venice, the ES narrowed by USD 1.00, declining from USD 100.00 to USD 99.00 and thereby slipping below the psychological USD 100.00 threshold, although the weekly average value rose by USD 6.33. Overall, no significant changes were observed in the ECA Spread dynamics at either port. We expect ES values to remain largely stable in the coming week. Detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section on mabux.com.

In 2025, several European countries recorded sharp spikes in LNG purchases. For LNG exporters, the key question is whether Europe’s LNG imports in 2025 were artificially inflated as part of efforts by a number of countries to narrow their trade deficits with the United States. According to Kpler, European LNG imports from the U.S. last year rose by nearly 60% compared with 2024 levels. However, as international attention increasingly shifts toward geopolitical considerations, European countries may scale back their demand for U.S. LNG. If so, LNG import volumes from the United States that were aimed at reducing trade imbalances in 2025 could be curtailed in 2026.

As of December 20, European regional gas storage facilities were filled to 49.12%, down by 3.37 percentage points compared to the previous week. Gas inventories continue to decline at an accelerated pace, with current storage levels already 12.34 percentage points below those recorded on January 1, 2026 (61.46%). Against this backdrop, the European TTF gas benchmark posted moderate gains during week 4, increasing by €4.414/MWh to €35.887/MWh, compared with €31.473/MWh last week.

The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) rose sharply this week, increasing by USD 132.00 to USD 829/MT, compared to USD 697/MT last week. As a result, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel shifted in favor of conventional fuel, widening to USD 121, unchanged from the previous week. As of January 19, MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at USD 708/MT. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.

By the end of Week 04, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which reflects the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP)—recorded the following pricing dynamics across the world’s largest bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:

• 380 HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undervalued zone. Average weekly MDI values were unchanged in Rotterdam, declined in Singapore by 4 points, but increased by 4 points in Fujairah and by 6 points in Houston.

• VLSFO segment: All ports also continued to trade in the undervalued zone. The MDI rose by 2 points in Rotterdam and by 1 point in both Singapore and Fujairah, while declining by 6 points in Houston. Notably, Houston’s MDI is now close to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.

• MGO LS segment: In the MGO LS segment, Fujairah remained the only overvalued port; however, the degree of MDI overvaluation declined by 22 points, bringing it closer to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP. The remaining three ports were undervalued, with the MDI increasing by 9 points in Rotterdam, 15 points in Singapore, and 19 points in Houston.

Overall, no material changes were observed in the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports over the past week. We expect the MDI to remain broadly stable in the coming week, with undervaluation continuing to dominate the global bunker market.

More detailed information on the relationship between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on mabux.com.

A new report by the Getting to Zero Coalition and the Global Maritime Forum underscores the critical need for scalable zero-emission fuels—such as e-ammonia and e-methanol—to meet the maritime sector’s decarbonization targets by 2040. The report indicates that dual-fuel vessels operating on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and ammonia are expected to remain the most cost-competitive solutions through the mid-2030s, with ammonia projected to become the leading option around 2037. The introduction of global fuel intensity (GFI) targets, alongside penalties for non-compliance, is helping establish a framework conducive to long-term investment. According to the analysis, ammonia is anticipated to emerge as the most cost-effective marine fuel by the late 2030s. This outlook is largely based on the deployment of so-called “blue fuels,” which rely on hydrogen produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture technologies. Even in the absence of policy incentives, the cost of conventional fuels is expected to rise, positioning LNG as the lowest-cost option between 2030 and 2035. With carbon capture technologies potentially extending LNG’s competitiveness until 2037, ammonia can already be viewed as a viable option for new vessel orders. Nevertheless, industry stakeholders continue to voice concerns over regulatory uncertainty and fuel availability, factors that may encourage a wait-and-see approach. As a result, many market participants are prioritizing short-term solutions—such as biofuels or LNG—over immediate investment in zero-emission technologies.

We believe that the global bunker market will retain the potential for a moderate upward trend next week, although corrective movements cannot be ruled out.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX