Today, the DCE iron ore market exhibited a volatile and downward trend. The benchmark contract, I2605, eventually closed at 783 RMB/tonne, representing a decline of 1.26% from the previous trading day. In the physical market, spot prices dropped by 5–8 RMB/tonne compared to the prior session. Traders largely followed market trends to adjust offers, while steel mills focused strictly on procurement for immediate production needs (‘rigid demand’). Inquiry activity remained low, maintaining a generally cold trading atmosphere. Looking ahead, as the steel mills’ pre-holiday restocking cycle nears its conclusion, the market anticipates a sharp decline in activity next week following the completion of this week’s concentrated replenishment. Consequently, the ‘buying support’ logic that previously underpinned prices faces a significant risk of invalidation. Simultaneously, constrained by the dual pressures of profit margin compression and environmental production restrictions, steel mills show a general lack of willingness to ramp up output. As a result, iron ore demand is likely to experience a periodic contraction. On balance, under the combined impact of fading restocking support, weakening demand, and the current high levels of port inventory, iron ore prices are projected to maintain a volatile and weak trajectory in the near term.

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Source: Metals Market Index (MMI)