Coal prices held above $115 per ton on Tuesday, hovering near one-year highs even after China’s main coal industry body cut its import outlook and flagged the potential for higher domestic output.

The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association lowered its 2026 coal import forecast to 465 million tons from 480 million tons projected about three weeks ago.

The association also estimates that domestic production will reach 4.86 billion tons this year, up from a record 4.8 billion tons last year, noting output could be even higher if imports fall sharply.

The revised projections followed moves by Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, to restrict shipments in an effort to support prices.

Indonesia, which accounted for roughly 40% of China’s coal imports last year, is aiming to cut output by nearly a quarter this year to around 600 million tons.
Source: Trading Economics