Russian crude exports shipped by sea fell by double digits in January, according to cargo tracking data, with shipments showing India or China as the destination both falling steeply.

The country’s seaborne crude exports dropped to 3.4 million b/d in January 2026, down 11.3% from 3.8 million b/d in December, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data showed.

Deliveries to India fell sharply, down 55.2% on the month to 505,400 b/d. China received 873,800 b/d, making it the top destination for the second month in a row, although this was 36.6% lower than December.

Meanwhile, volumes showing Singapore as the destination rose steeply, up by 154% on the month to 524,300 b/d.

It is not clear what proportion of those shipments were unloaded at the Asian trading hub, with some likely to have undergone offshore transfers to other vessels. Singapore remains among the primary hubs for Russian ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, according to S&P Global CERA analysts.

India has come under growing pressure in recent months to reduce its imports of Russian crude. On Feb. 2, US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with India, lowering US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%. In exchange, India had agreed to suspend Russian oil purchases and lower trade barriers, Trump said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in statement on X the same day that he was “delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%,” but did not mention Russian oil or provide more details about the agreement.

“Critically, Indian PM Modi has not confirmed stopping Russian oil purchases,” independent energy analyst George Voloshin said in a LinkedIn post Feb. 4. “His Feb. 2 statement referenced only that Trump’s leadership is vital for global peace without mentioning Russia,” Voloshin said.

Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, said in a research note, “While it is too early to conclude that the Russia-India oil trade will stop, the combination of EU restrictions and a US-India agreement could reduce the trade significantly.”

According to assessments by Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Urals crude prices averaged $31.28/b FOB Primorsk in January, up 12% from December, but still well below the five-year average of $63.33/b. The discount to Dated Brent widened to $31.28/b in January from $27.81/b in December. Platts assessed the discount at $31.07/b on Feb. 5.
Product exports rise

While crude exports fell, Russia’s refined product shipments rose 10.2% in January to 2.43 million b/d. That is around 20% above the 2025 average of 2.20 million b/d, according to CAS data.

Egypt was the top initial destination, with Russian deliveries jumping 267% to 485,439 b/d, but the barrels could be shipped somewhere else following transshipments. Turkey received 473,282 b/d, up 5%, and Brazil received 248,995 b/d, up 8%.

Offline Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes was about 7% of total capacity at the end of January, down from 17% in December, CERA analysts said.

However, drone strikes remain the biggest risk to Russian refineries in 2026, they said. Russian diesel exports increased to 985,000 b/d in January, with exports to Brazil rebounding in December and staying strong in January, according to CERA.
Source: Platts