Australia’s top two iron ore miners booked significant tonnage gains in the fourth quarter of 2025, which helped lift the total output of 20 of the world’s top producers in the period by 3.5% year over year, according to an analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

BHP Group Ltd.’s output in the quarter increased by 3.5 million metric tons, or 5.3%, from the prior-year period. This is the largest tonnage increase among the 20 analyzed miners. Its major iron ore peer in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, Rio Tinto Group, also lifted its global output by 3.4 million mt over the period.

The improvement of BHP and Rio Tinto accounted for just over half of the total increase of 13.2 million mt for the 20 companies included in this analysis.

Their gains helped Australian iron ore exports hit another record high in 2025, according to a Feb. 19 note from S&P Global Energy CERA analysts. This was despite challenges in price negotiations between BHP and state-owned China Mineral Resources Group Co. Ltd., which impacted realized pricing.

Brazil’s shipments rose 7.1% year over year in 2025. Iron ore supply from both Australia and Brazil “remains largely on track for 2026, with exports projected to edge higher despite weather-related disruptions and operational setbacks at Vale SA’s Viga and Fabrica Nova operations in Minas Gerais,” the CERA analysts said.

The supply boost from the major exporters comes as China’s iron ore imports are expected to drop by 10 million mt in 2026 to about 1.25 billion mt, reflecting a gradual decline in its steel output, according to CERA analysts.

“This is likely to be followed by two years of modest growth as Simandou [in Guinea] ramps up, displacing higher-cost marginal supply from Chinese mines,” the analysts said.

Production from Brazil’s Vale SA also increased by 1.7 million mt year over year, while Australia’s Fortescue Ltd. saw a decline of 500,000 mt.

Australia’s Fenix Resources Ltd. again had a strong performance with a record 1.2 million wet metric tons shipped for the period ending Dec. 31, 2025, according to a Jan. 5 release. Its output of 1.1 million mt represented a 62.8% improvement year over year, the largest percentage increase among the analyzed companies.

Fenix aims to lift its output from 2.4 million mt in fiscal 2025 to between 5.4 million and 6.0 million mt by fiscal 2028, according to a Dec. 11, 2025, announcement.
Ferrexpo PLC booked the largest decrease in both tonnage and percentage among the analyzed miners, with a year-over-year drop of 695,000 mt, or 39.3%, to 1.1 million mt.

A Nov. 10, 2025, statement from Ferrexpo said that, “in recent months, an increase in the frequency and intensity of attacks targeting Ukrainian energy generation and transmission infrastructure has been observed,” which interrupted production and exports.

Though Fortescue posted record shipments of 100.2 million mt for the half-year ending Dec. 31, 2025, its output for the December 2025 quarter fell 0.8% from a year prior to 61.4 million mt. It was the only one among the five largest producers analyzed to post lower production year over year during the quarter.

Rio Tinto’s output rose 4.5% year over year to 79.5 million mt, as its Pilbara operations in Western Australia continued to produce at record rates since April 2025, it said Feb. 19.

The miner holds an interest in one of two Simandou developments, which shipped out its first high-grade iron ore shipment in December 2025. Its Western Range iron ore replacement mine in Western Australia also opened in 2025.

BHP’s output for the December 2025 quarter rose to 69.7 million mt, up 5.3% year over year, as production from Samarco in Brazil increased 34% to 1.9 million mt following ramp-up and higher feed grades.
Source: Platts