The near-three-week conflict between Iran and the US/Israeli coalition has delivered its most severe blow yet to global energy infrastructure, with QatarEnergy confirming catastrophic damage to two of its flagship LNG trains and a cascade of fresh strikes on Middle East energy hubs threatening to reshape the shipping landscape for years to come.

QatarEnergy has confirmed severe damage to RasGas Trains 4 and 6 – a combined 12.8 mtpa of LNG supply representing 17% of Qatar’s normal Ras Laffan export capacity and roughly 3% of global output. The operator told Reuters repairs could take three to five years, a development that will reverberate across LNG shipping demand, Asian shipbuilders and long-term charter markets.

The Qatar blow came as fresh strikes in the past 36 hours widened the conflict’s footprint across the Gulf’s energy infrastructure. Kuwaiti oil infrastructure has been targeted, and, most significantly, Iran has struck the Saudi port and refinery complex at Yanbu on the Red Sea. Yanbu had emerged as Saudi Arabia’s critical emergency outlet during the conflict, a pressure valve for crude exports that could no longer safely route through Hormuz. 

Adding a further commercial dimension, Iranian media reported Thursday that Tehran is considering legislation that would require countries to pay transit fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Against that backdrop, the International Maritime Organization has just concluded an extraordinary session of its council in London to address the crisis. The session backed the creation of a humanitarian corridor to evacuate the estimated 3,200 vessels and 20,000 seafarers currently stranded inside the Gulf.

The corridor concept draws inevitable comparisons to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which carved out a protected shipping lane from Ukraine early in the Russia-Ukraine war. That mechanism was widely regarded as effective in addressing global food security pressures, though it relied heavily on UN and Turkish guarantees. 

Political backing is building but remains imprecise. A joint statement from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan on March 19 condemned attacks on commercial shipping and energy infrastructure and described Hormuz as effectively closed – but stopped short of endorsing naval escorts, leaving the mechanism for safe transit unresolved.

In his closing address to the council yesterday, IMO secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez quoted from a recent article carried by Splash and penned by Sunil Kapoor, which noted: “When seafarers die, statements are not enough. Vessels can be insured, cargo can be insured; but a human life cannot be replaced.”