Barclays released an analysis examining commodity prices reflected in current share prices across its coverage universe, comparing implied prices to spot levels.

For iron ore equities, Vale (NYSE:VALE), BHP and Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) are pricing in iron ore below current spot prices at $86 per ton, $87 per ton and $78 per ton respectively, compared to spot prices of $110 per ton. Diversified miners’ share prices rose 2% to 4% last week while iron ore spot prices fell 1% last week. Implied iron ore prices for BHP and Vale increased slightly, while Rio Tinto’s implied iron ore price fell 4% due to its aluminium exposure, which represents 21% of EBITDA on spot and rose 7% last week following accelerating supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Among copper equities, Antofagasta is pricing in $7.04 per pound or $15,517 per ton, representing a 21% premium to spot prices. Anglo American is pricing in a 7% premium to spot, Freeport-McMoRan is pricing a 1% discount to spot, while Glencore’s implied copper price is at a 4% discount to spot. Boliden shows an implied copper price at a 63% discount to spot, reflecting the share price decline following the Garpenberg profit warning last week.

For precious metals equities, Hochschild Mining and Endeavour Mining are pricing gold and silver below spot prices, while Fresnillo is pricing well above spot, reflecting its elevated price-to-NPV multiple.

In aluminium, Norsk Hydro is pricing LME 13% below spot compared to a 9% discount last week. South32 is pricing 2% below spot price compared to 5% above spot price last week.
Source: Investing.com