Global fertilizer markets are being slowly reshaped by a rare convergence of geopolitical disruption, supply constraints and growing affordability concerns.

What began as a regional shock has broadened into a structural challenge across products, with the Middle East conflict continuing to distort product flows, restricting local production and restricting vessels at a critical moment in the seasonal cycle.

As a result, prices across nitrogen, sulphur, sulphuric acid and phosphate are being increasingly driven by scarcity and unease in market sentiment rather than consumption or demand.

Urea markets are at the centre of this volatility, with India’s latest tender crystallising the sharp upward adjustment in prices. The unexpectedly large volume offered has shifted perceptions worldwide, even as demand outside India weakens rapidly under the weight of these higher numbers.

This theme of strong pricing masking underlying demand destruction is echoed elsewhere in nitrogen, from ammonia through urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and is raising serious questions around sustainability into the second half of the year.

Beyond nitrogen, supply concerns are acute. Sulphur and sulphuric acid are experiencing historic supply tightness as export bans, shipping concerns and raw materials shortages converge, pushing prices to record or near-record levels.

Phosphates continue to draw support from constrained availability and firm south Asian demand ahead of Kharif season, but downstream demand destruction is evident in Europe and parts of the Americas. In Brazil, in particular, there is concern that reduced application rates could lead to diminished yields.

Potash remains relatively insulated, benefitting from stable logistics and its position as the most cost- effective nutrient amid soaring nitrogen and phosphates prices.
Across markets, participants are navigating an environment whose most defining characteristic is uncertainty. Fragile logistics, opaque policy decisions, and growing concerns over farmer affordability are just three of the issues facing the market.

The question many participants are asking is: ‘How long would it take for fertilizer markets to normalise, even if the Strait were to reopen immediately? Estimates vary significantly, from a few months to up to a year.

UREA
Attention in urea is focused on the Indian tender, which drew higher-than-expected volume, while FOB prices have increased further as the offers reflect firmer netbacks across origins.
The tender has driven sharp price increases in several regions, while suppliers are separately keen to place any available spot volume into India as demand in every other region is down because of the recent price surge.

FOB prices continue to outpace CFR, meaning most buyers cannot afford current levels. Even demand from Australia, which had been supporting the higher prices so far, is now starting to weaken.

India may be able to buy around 2 million tonnes from the 5.9 million tonnes that was offered, subject to final government approval, with prices being the highest level in any tender since November 2021.

Russia is expected to be India’s largest source of urea, followed by north Africa, Nigeria, the Black Sea, southeast Asia and potential re-export cargoes. Iran’s supply position remains uncertain, while China is unlikely to have any urea available for shipment in the next two months.

Little else has changed for urea, with supply still disrupted from the Middle East.

There are no shipments loading from the Arab Gulf, while Iran has again banned the export of urea and ammonia.

Fertilizer vessels remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, with no urea shipments having departed nearly seven weeks after the conflict began.

On the Middle East conflict, there is renewed optimism of peace after Israel and Lebanon began a 10- day ceasefire from late on 16 April.

AMMONIA
Tight ammonia availability continues, as no product is coming out of the Middle East.

Asian buyers are in the market, with FACT extending the closing date of its purchase tender in India. Volumes from China and Indonesia are also heard agreed to India. Moreover, Taiwanese and Korean buyers are looking to Indonesia and Malaysia for product.

Product from north Africa is also tight, with Algeria continuing to produce at lower rates due to a decrease in gas supply and Egypt focusing on contract shipments. A cargo agreed from Algeria, possibly to Europe, has pushed prices up at a time when Europe is short of product.

Natural gas TTF prices in Europe have decreased slightly this week, but this has not encouraged domestic ammonia producers to increase production rates.

US fertilizer sentiment has softened slightly as planting progresses and pre-season inputs wrap up, with prices easing after a recent rally despite steady demand through mid-April.

However, uncertainty over ammonia markets and farmer affordability is growing, clouding decisions on summer fill and year-end prepay commitments amid ongoing geopolitical volatility.

Supply from Trinidad remains lower than usual, with Nutrien’s operations on the island remaining shut due to natural gas supply issues.

SULPHUR
Global sulphur markets remain extremely tight, driven by export restrictions, shipping disruptions and strong downstream demand.

In Russia, sulphur exports continue to be banned through 30 June, keeping spot availability limited. A Kazakhstan-origin cargo was recently sold to a metals leacher in Indonesia at $920/tonne CFR, prompting the upper end of the Black Sea FOB range to be raised. Separately, deliveries to Morocco continue under quarterly contracts at $710–720/tonne CFR, with Black Sea–Morocco freight estimated at $32/tonne.

In the Mediterranean and north Africa, prices have firmed amid limited spot availability. A 2,000-tonne parcel was sold to Spain at close to $780/tonne CFR, while Egyptian spot business was heard at
$780–800/tonne CFR. A trader also sold 5,000 tonnes sourced from Eni S.p.A. to a Moroccan fertilizer producer, loading at Augusta, with the cargo reportedly sold at a “low” price relative to prevailing levels.

In east and central Africa, demand remains very strong from uranium mines in the Congo, with sulphur consistently trading at $1,000/tonne CFR Dar es Salaam and then transported onward from there.

In the Middle East, conditions remain highly disrupted. Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) imposed a blanket export ban on petrochemicals – including sulphur – effective 13 April until further notice, removing a key source of global supply. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, with the US blockade of Iranian ports halting seaborne trade. While some Middle Eastern refiners have reportedly sold sulphur to Asian buyers, 15–20 sulphur-laden vessels are waiting to sail, and most available spot volumes are already sold. Even if tensions ease, market participants expect it could take months for flows to normalize, with 2,000-3,000 vessels stranded in the Gulf. The Middle East FOB range was maintained due to the absence of confirmed new trades
In Asia, China saw no concluded import business, with buyers resisting higher prices amid falling fertilizer demand and phosphate production curtailments. In India, the government increased sulphur subsidies by 21.07%, alongside higher potassic and phosphatic fertilizer subsidies, but no imports were concluded this week despite higher offers. India’s CFR range was raised to reflect those offers, as supply remains severely constrained by the lack of Arab-Gulf shipments.

Talks of buyers seeking an export restriction on sulphur resurfaced but could not be confirmed. There is no official advisory from the government so far.

In Indonesia, Kazakh sulphur was sold to a metals leacher, while Huayou Cobalt closed a tender for 35,000–50,000 tonnes without hearing offers; prices continue to rise as industrial buyers secure volumes.

In the Atlantic Basin, the US is actively exporting amid strong global arbitrage. Canadian sulphur availability is tightening due to Asian demand and scheduled outages, with Vancouver FOB indications raised and discussions for Brazil heard at around $800/tonne FOB. Brazil itself remains short, with CMOC’s recent tender for 35,000-38,000 tonnes attracting no offers, while prior business was done at $700-730/tonne CFR, more recent spot trades were around $850/tonne CFR, and sources warned prices could reach $1,000/tonne CFR if disruptions persist.

SULPHURIC ACID
Sulphuric acid pricing has spiked across the world as fears for security of supply intensify.

Late last week, China – the world’s largest exporter of sulphuric acid – banned all exports from May to December; with the news breaking just days before a major base metals industry gathering in Santiago, Chile.

As delegates gathered, importers abruptly found planned tonnage missing from their H2 line-ups, leading to sudden interest in securing new sources of supply.

However, with northwest European, Japanese and South Korean acid largely committed – and burner feedstock sulphur supply already critically short as the Middle East conflict continues – what acid tonnes could be found instantly commanded a higher price.

FOB offer levels from China, South Korea and Japan are at their highest on ICIS’ records. Brazilian and Chilean CFR import pricing have also marked an all-time high.
The global acid trade is collectively asking one question: what happens now?

PHOSPHATES
The global phosphate market was shaped by heightened supply concerns, renewed activity in south Asia, and persistently weak demand across parts of Europe.

Limited product availability – driven in part by uncertainty around key raw materials and export restrictions from China – continued to underpin firm sentiment in several regions.

In India, import activity remained a central focus. The country is understood to have purchased diammonium phosphate (DAP) of Moroccan and US origin, the latter at higher prices compared to those from last week. National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) issued a notice inviting tender to empanel suppliers for DAP and other fertilizer products via long-term memoranda of understanding (MoU) for the 2026-2027 period.

Market sentiment was also influenced by firming prices in India and southeast Asia.

Sources indicated that there are talks between Moroccan suppliers and Indian buyers for a DAP and triple superphosphate (TSP) deal. It is indicated that the talks have been ongoing since February and demands are constantly changing. There is significant reluctance for accepting TSP in India, where sources state the soil is unsuitable, and TSP is not used for blending.

A significant concern for phosphates is supply. China’s continued absence from the export market has tightened availability. In Brazil, sulphur supply constraints emerged as one of the dominant issues.

In Europe, market conditions remain mixed. Demand for phosphates in the UK and Italy is described as minimal, with farmers focused on existing crops and showing limited purchasing appetite amid unfavourable agricultural economics.

In the US, activity at New Orleans (Nola) continued at a steady pace for both DAP and MAP. However, affordability concerns were increasingly evident downstream.

POTASH
Muriate of potash (MOP) offer pricing is stable and demand is good as potash remains the nutrient of choice for many farmers.

The collapse of initial peace talks in the Middle East continues to underline MOP’s relatively stable trade routes and supply/demand balance.

In China, domestic demand is slowing as peak fertilizer production season comes to a close.
AN/CAN
Seasonal agricultural demand is near its annual peak, driven by spring top-dressing for cereals across northern and central Europe.

However, demand destruction across the urea sector, owing to skyrocketing prices, has pushed up demand for ammonium nitrate (AN), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) and ammonium sulphate (AS).

European farmers have been actively purchasing AN and CAN for winter wheat, barley and oilseed rape, with CAN particularly favored in regions with nitrate restrictions or soil pH considerations.

However, high prices have triggered selective buying behavior, with some farmers reducing application rates or delaying purchases where possible. A supplier said its buyers were expressing no interest in tonnes for 2027 spring application.

Despite the bullish sentiment for AN and CAN, as well as the continued ban on AN exports out of Russia, prices are stable.

UAN
In the global urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) sector, demand is trending overall lower, but prices have risen in some regions like the US.

There remains heavy interest from this segment in the ongoing developments in the Middle East conflict, which has continued to disrupt fertilizer trading patterns and regional production.

In Europe, with the nutrient inputs and sowings nearly finished, or for some already fully completed, demand levels are fading but values for nearby supply are staying steady in most countries.

The EU’s first quarterly Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price for 2026 has been revealed for the first quarter of 2026 at €75.36/tonne of CO2.

The price provides an early signal of the potential carbon cost facing importers of CBAM-covered goods including fertilizers and was in line with expectations. It is being asserted that CBAM remains a secondary concern compared with the Middle East conflict.

In the US, the lull that comes with farmers being focused on their new sowings has left the pace of movement considerably lower. Demand expectations have not become dull, with buying for supply in May and June expected to be quite strong, especially if secondary application is more pronounced this season with the recent wet weather impacts.

River terminal supply values increased again. Crop prices were rising, but there are more questions and unease over upcoming farmer affordability and whether this will result in reduced application.
Source: By Chris Vlachopoulos, Senior Editor Phosphates at ICIS