The story so far in 2026 has been quite a positive one for the dry bulk market. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “the first four months of 2026 have delivered an unambiguous message from the dry bulk freight market: the sharp correction that defined most of 2025 is firmly behind us, and the recovery now underway is not merely cyclical, but it is volume-driven, broad-based, and structurally compelling. Total dry bulk cargo volumes across the Janu-ary-to-April period reached 506.7 million tonnes in 2026, a 9.6% increase versus the 462.5 million tonnes recorded in the same period of 2025, and a 15.2% advance over the 439.8 million tonnes seen in the first four months of 2024. Each successive year has added a clear incremental layer to this growth trajectory, confirming that the demand side of the dry bulk equation has been quietly strengthen-ing even as freight rate volatility obscured the underlying picture”.

Source: Xclusiv

According to Xclusiv, “the monthly data adds important granularity. January opened the year with 126.8 million tonnes, representing a 15.6% year-on-year increase, the single largest monthly gain in the dataset. February followed at 118.7 million tonnes (+12.4%), sustaining the momentum and confirming that the uplift was not the product of a single cargo programme or origin port. March and April maintained strong absolute levels at 131.0 million and 130.1 million tonnes respective-ly, posting year-on-year advances of +1.4% and +10.3% against an already elevated 2025 base, particularly notable giv-en that March 2025 had itself been the strongest month of that year at 129.2 million tonnes”.

The shipbroker added that “the freight market has tracked this demand recovery, albeit with the amplification typical of rate dynamics. Across the four-month period, the Capesize C5TC averaged approximately $24,953/day in 2026, an 82% improvement over the depressed 2025 average of $13,728/day for the same window, and a 7.3% advance above the 2024 comparable of $23,223/day. April 2026 deserves particular attention: the monthly C5TC average reached $31,417/day, the highest April reading in the three-year dataset and more than 96% above April 2025’s $16,022/day. The Panamax P5TC fol-lowed a structurally similar arc, with the 2026 four-month average of $15,841/day recovering from the 2025 low of $10,197/day to levels almost exactly matching 2024’s $15,665/day, a near-complete retracing of last year’s retrench-ment. The same logic applies across the mid-size and smaller segments. The Ultramax S11TC averaged $15,328/day over the first four months of 2026, compared to $10,781/day in 2025, a 42% recovery, while the Handysize HS7TC improved to $12,648/day from $9,409/ day, a 34% gain. In each case, 2026 readings are broadly back in line with 2024 levels, confirming that 2025’s weakness was cyclical in character rather than a structur-al repricing of dry bulk earnings capacity”.

Source: Xclusiv

Xclusiv concluded that “the convergence of accelerating cargo volumes and re-covering freight rates over the same four-month window is not coincidental. It reflects a market that has moved through a period of oversupply sentiment and is now responding to a progressively tightening balance between availa-ble tonnage and cargo demand. As the year progresses, the central question is no longer whether the recovery is real as the data confirms it emphatically, but whether the pace of volume growth and the current rate trajectory can be sustained against the backdrop of fleet deliveries and an increasingly dynamic geopolitical environment that continues to introduce both risk and opportunity in equal measure”.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide