Global agricultural trade is continuing to expand, but longer voyage distances, climate disruption and mounting pressure on key shipping routes are beginning to reshape dry bulk markets and support tonne-mile demand for shipowners.

New analysis from shipbrokers Ursa, Braemar and Xclusiv points to a combination of record voyage durations, changing grain export patterns and looming El Niño weather risks that could tighten vessel supply and boost freight markets over the next 18 months.

According to Ursa Shipbrokers, average agricultural voyage duration reached 33.2 days globally in the first quarter of 2026, the highest level recorded in available historical data.

The figure covers both sea passage and port stays for dry bulk agricultural cargoes, including wheat, corn, soybeans, barley and rice carried internationally on bulk carriers.

Ursa estimated agricultural cargo loadings at 182.9m tonnes during the quarter, up from 170.3m tonnes a year earlier, while sea voyage duration alone climbed nearly 13% year-on-year to 20.3 days.

The broker said the increase was overwhelmingly driven by longer sailing distances rather than port congestion or slower vessel speeds.

“Bulk carriers required longer during the opening three months of 2026 to transport and discharge agricultural cargoes,” Ursa said in its report.

Meanwhile, global agricultural seaborne trade continues to grow steadily. Ursa estimated April shipments at 67.7m tonnes, up 14% year-on-year and marking the tenth straight month of annual growth.Cumulative agricultural shipments between January and April reached 250.6m tonnes, the highest level for the period in at least a decade.

The structural growth story remains intact. Global agricultural seaborne exports climbed from 564.7m tonnes in 2016 to a record 722.8m tonnes in 2025, implying annual compound growth of around 3%.But brokers say the next major driver for dry bulk markets may come from weather disruptions linked to a possible El Niño cycle.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast an 82% probability of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July this year, with rising chances of a strong event developing later in 2026.

Braemar noted that the previous major El Niño cycle in 2023-24 brought mixed impacts across global crop regions, including drought conditions in parts of Asia and southern Africa and shifting rainfall patterns across the Americas.

This time, analysts believe changing weather conditions could significantly alter grain flows.

The International Grains Council expects wheat exports from Argentina, Australia and the United States to weaken due to crop concerns, potentially opening the door for increased exports from Black Sea producers and Canada.

Corn trade is still expected to rise modestly, while soybean trade could hit a record 190.4m tonnes in the 2026-27 season, supported by strong East Asian demand.

Braemar said Argentina could increase its share of corn exports following improved crop prospects tied to wetter weather conditions.

At the same time, rising fertiliser and energy prices remain a concern for growers, particularly in South America where producers rely heavily on imported fertilisers.The shipping implications could be significant.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers warned that another strong El Niño event could create “extreme climate-induced disruption” across dry bulk markets while also supporting freight rates through longer voyage distances and operational bottlenecks.

The broker drew parallels with the 2023-24 El Niño cycle, when drought conditions sharply reduced water levels at the Panama Canal and triggered a collapse in Panamax lock transits.

Despite those disruptions, global dry bulk seaborne trade still reached a record 5.37bn tonnes.

Pressure is already building again at the canal. Xclusiv said average waiting times have risen to nearly 48 hours this month, around 60% above pre-war baseline levels, while planned maintenance work on Gatun Locks in June will reduce daily transit slots.

The Panama Canal Authority has said it does not currently expect restrictions in 2026 because reservoir levels remain healthy, although it acknowledged that the strongest drought impacts from El Niño usually emerge the following year.

For agricultural shipping, longer rerouted voyages could become one of the key themes.

Xclusiv said reduced Australian wheat production could force Asian buyers to source more grain cargoes from Brazil and Argentina, boosting tonne-mile demand for panamax and kamsarmax vessels.

Meanwhile, restrictions or high transit costs at Panama could increasingly push US Gulf grain cargoes away from the canal route and toward the Cape of Good Hope instead, significantly extending voyage distances.

The broker estimates some voyage legs could increase by as much as 50%.

That trend echoes concerns raised during this year’s Geneva Dry conference, where agricultural commodity traders and shipowners discussed how conflict, geopolitics and supply chain disruptions are increasingly redrawing traditional grain trading routes.

With agricultural volumes still growing and voyage distances expanding, brokers believe dry bulk owners could continue benefiting even if overall commodity growth slows.