The short-term reaction to 30% tariffs levied on imports from the EU and Mexico is likely to be the same wait-and-see approach taken after US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, according to a shipping industry analyst.

Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, said he expects any and all non-urgent cargo orders to be put on hold from 1 August in the expectation, or hope, that these tariffs will again be reduced.

“That will mean a short-term dip in cargo demand on all origins to the US,” Jensen said.

Jensen noted that the letters being sent to nations describing the level of new tariffs will not be legally valid until an executive order or congressional action is taken.

“What is presently legally binding is the executive order from Liberation Day outlining the original levels of reciprocal tariffs as well as the executive order pausing the implementation until 1 August,” Jensen said.

And if the new tariff levels take effect and persist, Jensen said many US importers will have little choice but to resume importing their goods and pay the tariffs.

“This will mean demand will be at a level roughly around or slightly below the minimum level of import volumes necessary to meet demand in the US and we might see more of a drawdown on inventories,” Jensen said.

The trade war has already had an impact on volumes.

Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL), a unit of China’s container shipping major Cosco, said global volumes were up by 4.4% in the second quarter.

But Jensen noted underlying data that showed Pacific volumes down by 4.3% and Atlantic volumes up by 20.5%.

Meanwhile, rates for containers from east Asia and China to the US continue to fall on low demand and as front-loading during the tariff pause is ending.

Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers.

They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.
Source: ICIS by Adam Yanelli, https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2025/07/14/11119050/shipping-container-shippers-to-take-wait-and-see-approach-to-eu-mexico-tariffs-analyst/