At the end of Week 29, the global bunker indices tracked by MABUX showed a moderate decline across all segments. The 380 HSFO index decreased by USD 1.55, moving from USD 470.18/MT the previous week to USD 468.63/MT, continuing to stay well below the USD 500.00 threshold. The VLSFO index also declined, falling by USD 4.92 from USD 564.99/MT to USD 560.07/MT. Meanwhile, the MGO index saw a decrease of USD 3.44, dropping from USD 794.20/MT to USD 790.76/MT. At the time of writing, the global bunker market was showing mixed dynamics without a clearly defined trend.

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – decreased by USD 3.37, falling from USD 94.81 last week to USD 91.44, once again moving away from the psychological USD 100.00 SS breakeven mark. The weekly average of the global index also declined by USD 3.68. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread dropped by USD 6.00, from USD 77.00 to USD 71.00. However, the weekly average in the port showed a slight increase of USD 0.17, indicating a momentary stabilization. In Singapore, the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO also narrowed by USD 6.00, down from USD 109.00 to USD 103.00. This brings the index close to the USD 100.00 threshold, even briefly falling below this level during the week. The weekly average in Singapore declined by USD 4.00. The mixed movements of the SS Spread indices reflect the uncertain and transitional state of the global bunker market, which is still in the process of forming a clear and stable trend. No significant shifts in the SS Spread dynamics are expected in the coming week, and mixed index movements are likely to persist. More detailed insights are available in the “Differentials” section on mabux.com.

The European Parliament has approved a relaxation of the rules and targets governing natural gas storage within the EU. This move aims to enhance flexibility and reduce the risk of energy price spikes during high-demand periods. Under the revised regulations, EU member states are now required to reach 90% gas storage capacity at any point between 1 October and 1 December, rather than adhering to a fixed deadline of 1 November as was previously mandated. Additionally, in response to volatile market conditions, member states will be permitted to deviate from the 90% target by up to 10 percentage points. This exception applies during periods of difficult market circumstances—such as instances of market speculation—that may hinder the cost-effective filling of storage facilities. Importantly, the requirement to maintain a 90% storage capacity has also been extended by two years, now applying through to the end of 2027.

As of July 15, European regional gas storage facilities were 63.24% full, reflecting an increase of 2.32% compared to the previous week, but a decline of 8.09% from the level at the beginning of the year (71.33%). The process of replenishing gas reserves in EU storage sites is ongoing. At the end of Week 29, the European gas benchmark TTF recorded a slight increase of 0.226 EUR/MWh, rising from 34.219 EUR/MWh last week to 34.445 EUR/MWh.

The price of LNG used as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) declined by 3 USD over the past week, settling at 815 USD/MT as of the end of the week, compared to 818 USD/MT the previous week. At the same time, the price differential between LNG and conventional marine fuel narrowed to 7 USD in favor of conventional fuel, down from a 10 USD difference the week before. On July 15, MGO LS was quoted at 808 USD/MT in the port. For further details, please refer to the LNG Bunkering section on the mabux.com website.

At the end of Week 29, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which reflects the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (DBP)—showed the following weekly trends in the world’s major bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:

• 380 HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undervalued zone. MDI values decreased by 3 points in Rotterdam, increased by 3 points in Singapore, rose by 5 points in Fujairah, and remained unchanged in Houston.

• VLSFO segment: Rotterdam was the only port in the overvalued zone, with its MDI rising by another 3 points. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued. In this group, MDI increased by 8 points in Singapore and by 3 points in Fujairah, but fell by 2 points in Houston, where the index continues to hover around the USD 100.00 mark.

• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam recorded a 100% correlation between MBP and DBP, indicating market parity. The other ports remained in the undervalued zone, with MDI values falling by 9 points in Singapore, 11 points in Fujairah, and 15 points in Houston. Notably, Fujairah’s MDI continues to stay above the USD 100.00 level.

By the end of the week, there were no major shifts in the overall structure of overvalued and undervalued ports. The prevailing trend remains a widespread undervaluation of bunker fuel across all segments. Based on current dynamics, we expect the existing MDI trends to persist into the following week.

Further details on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark can be found in the Digital Bunker Prices section of mabux.com.

A new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) finds that reducing the global marine fuel sulphur cap from 0.50% to 0.10% would significantly reduce air pollution and promote the use of cleaner fuels. The study explores three potential pathways for achieving the 0.10% sulphur standard. The first scenario, referred to as “Scrubber Max,” assumes that ships currently using very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) would switch to high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) equipped with exhaust gas cleaning systems (scrubbers). The second scenario, called “Scrubber Allowed,” envisions ships transitioning from VLSFO to marine gas oil (MGO) while still allowing HSFO with scrubbers. The third scenario, “Distillate Only,” involves prohibiting scrubber use altogether, requiring all ships currently operating on HSFO with scrubbers or VLSFO to convert to MGO. The study’s findings indicate that adopting a global 0.10% sulphur standard would bring major environmental benefits when compared to a baseline scenario based on 2023 shipping activity data. Sulphur oxide emissions would decline by 75 to 85 percent, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 46 to 66 percent, and black carbon emissions by 27 to 41 percent across all three scenarios. Moreover, the analysis concludes that this sulphur cap reduction would encourage the use of distillate fuels, lead to higher baseline fossil fuel costs, and narrow the price gap between conventional fuels and zero- or near-zero greenhouse gas emitting alternatives.

We believe that the global bunker market is currently in a phase of establishing a stable trend, which is expected to be accompanied by moderate and multidirectional price fluctuations in the coming week.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX