Oil prices on Monday reached their lowest level in over four years as expectations of a global glut in 2026 outweighed concerns of disruptions on oil flows from Venezuela – at least as far as analysts were concerned.

Brent settled down 56 cents to $60.56 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate settled down 62 cents to $56.82 per barrel – the latter benchmark falling to its lowest level since February 2021.

Despite the International Energy Agency, whose glut forecasts were largely responsible for provoking concern within the investment community for most of 2025, earlier cutting its forecast from 4.09 million barrels per day (bpd) to 3.84 million bpd, the notion of oversupply took analytical precedence.

By contrast, traders seemed to shrug off reports of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, whose oil exports have reportedly fallen sharply since Washington seized a tanker last week and imposed fresh sanctions designed to isolate the Latin American oil producer.

Presumably, any bullish sentiment stemming from the conflict was nullified by ample Venezuelan oil supplies already en route to the country’s biggest buyer, China.

Also countering any upward breakout in trading on Monday were the Russia/Ukraine peace negotiations, in which Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to drop his country’s ambition to join NATO.

Rustem Umerov, secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, stated, “Over the past two days, Ukrainian-U.S. negotiations have been constructive and productive, with real progress achieved.”

An agreement to end the war could compel Washington to lift its sanctions against Russia and boost flows from that country, thus contributing to the perceived upcoming glut.

Bloomberg noted that oil is set for an annual loss, and that “Concerns about a glut are showing up in the key Middle Eastern crude market, and trend-following commodity trading advisers were 100 percent short in both Brent and WTI on Monday.”

In other oil news on Monday the Russian news agency TASS reported that the former Soviet Union could extend the ban on gasoline exports by the end of February from the current end-date December 31, 2025; the ban was last extended in September as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and other energy infrastructure resulted in fuel shortages at the end of the summer.