CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest liner, has provided a counter-narrative to the many analysts expecting liners to flock back to the Suez Canal following the Houthis’ three-month-long ceasefire on merchant shipping. 

Citing the “complex and uncertain international context”, the French liner today announced that three of its services – FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX – that had been early returnees to the Suez last year will now reroute back to the longer Cape of Good Hope route. 

Danish carrier Maersk made headlines last week by taking its first structural step back into the Red Sea, rerouting its MECL service, connecting the Middle East and India with the US east coast. Given that Maersk has been the most risk-averse out of the major carriers regarding a return to the Red Sea, the news was greeted by analysts as a likely turning point for a wholesale return to the traditional route between Asia and Europe over the coming months, something now cast into doubt by the announcement from CMA CGM’s Marseilles headquarters today.

Tension in Middle Eastern waters has grown over the last 10 days as the US and Iran have adopted an aggressive tone toward each other. Iran has said any US strike will likely lead to commercial shipping being targeted by Tehran. Iran has also been the biggest supporter of the Houthis in terms of military hardware and intelligence. 

“The return to the Suez Canal route is one of this year’s key influencing factors for capacity, freight rates, transit times and fuel consumption,” commented Philip Damas, managing director of shipping consultancy Drewry.