Iran has expanded the maritime zone it considers under operational control around the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Iranian-linked media coverage cited by analysts, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy now describes the Strait of Hormuz as a “vast operational area” stretching from Jask in eastern Iran to Siri Island in the west. Reports from Fars and Tasnim suggested the asserted operational envelope has widened dramatically from around 20 to 30 miles previously to as much as 200 to 300 miles across the Hormuz approaches.

The move follows the publication earlier this month of an IRGC map indicating a new control zone spanning much of the UAE-facing Gulf of Oman coastline, increasing uncertainty for vessels transiting into and out of the Arabian Gulf.

The deteriorating operating picture was reinforced yesterday by maritime analytics platform Windward, which reported a swarm of more than 200 small craft inside the northern Hormuz corridor.

The vessels were concentrated off the southeastern shore of Qeshm Island and throughout the centre of the corridor, coinciding with what Windward described as a complete halt in commercial movement, with all large commercial ships in the area observed as stationary.

The mounting disruption is showing up in global economic indicators.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has risen for three consecutive months after remaining subdued for the past three years. April recorded the sharpest jump, pushing the index to its highest level in almost four years.

Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Global Supply Chain Stress Index, which tracks container shipping and port fluidity, is now approaching levels last seen during the pandemic-era supply chain crisis.

The geopolitical ramifications are also broadening beyond shipping itself. According to Reuters, both Iraq and Pakistan have reached agreements with Iran to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf, underscoring Tehran’s growing leverage over regional energy flows through Hormuz.

For dry bulk shipping, the fallout is becoming increasingly severe.

Brokerage Ursa Shipbrokers said dry bulk cargo flows loaded west of the Strait of Hormuz and destined beyond the Gulf had “come close to a halt” by week 18 of 2026.

Using vessel tracking data, Ursa estimated total export volumes at just 47,000 tonnes for the week of April 27 to May 3, compared with an average of 2.2m tonnes over the same period between 2016 and 2025.

Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, cumulative dry bulk cargoes loaded within the Persian Gulf for destinations east of Hormuz have amounted to only around 2.6m tonnes across all commodities and vessel sizes, according to the broker.

Ursa cautioned that GPS jamming, AIS disruption and intermittent signal blackouts may be obscuring parts of the trade picture, but the overall trend points to an extraordinary collapse in regional bulk exports.

The Persian Gulf is a major export hub for commodities including limestone, aggregates, sulphur and urea. Ursa estimates cumulative dry bulk volumes for weeks 9 to 18 are down 88% both year-on-year and against historical averages, implying a loss of around 19m tonnes in cargo throughput.

The latest developments are likely to intensify fears within shipping markets that the Hormuz crisis has evolved from a regional security issue into a prolonged structural disruption for global maritime trade.