What will the shipping markets look like in the coming 12 months? Maritime CEO’s annual outlook for the Year of the Fire Horse – published today – consults hundreds of experts within the industry, as well as a Feng Shui master, to give readers a unique perspective on the driving factors for each of the main shipping sectors, while looking at the regulatory issues coming up, along with a deep dive on the environment, while the magazine’s tech correspondents provide in depth coverage on what we can expect to see in terms of maritime technology breakthroughs this year.

For decades, the shipping industry has built its business models on the assumption of a rules-based global order. Trade flowed, ports operated, and volatility, while sometimes severe, was viewed as cyclical-a passing storm that would eventually give way to calm. But as we move deeper into 2026, with war raging in and around Iran, a consensus has crystallised among industry leaders: the storm has not passed; it has become the climate.

The US incursions into Venezuela and Iran this year have upended trading patterns with the secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Arsenio Dominguez having to stress this week that freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international maritime law, amid multiple ship attacks and paralysis in much of Middle Eastern trade.

The era of just-in-time and predictable seas is being replaced by a reality defined by persistent geopolitical friction. For many, the initial shock of this shift is giving way to a pragmatic, if sombre, acceptance. As Daniel Bischofberger, CEO of Swiss turbocharging specialist Accelleron, puts it: “Shipping has always operated under uncertainty, and I think those who accept it as a more or less permanent state of affairs are going to benefit.”

This acceptance is not about defeat, but about adaptation. Arthur English, CEO of Norwegian owner G2 Ocean, sees the current environment as the defining challenge of the decade. “I believe the question of reshaping global trade will continue as a major theme for many years,” he says. “Rather than worry about it, our job is to try and understand it and adapt to the emerging realities.”

The peak is nowhere in sight

If the goal is adaptation, the first step is recognising that the disruption is not a temporary anomaly. When looking at the horizon, the view from the C-suite is decidedly cautious. Mikael Skov, the head of tanker giant Hafnia and a veteran of industry cycles, offers this assessment: “I don’t believe we have reached peak geopolitical dislocation yet. Fragmentation remains a real risk, particularly if political tensions translate into broader trade restrictions or retaliatory measures that reduce volumes and efficiency in global trade.”

Skov adds that while fragmentation is a significant headwind, it is not an end state. “That said, shipping has always operated in an imperfect world. While prolonged fragmentation is a concern, it can also drive long-term value creation.”

For Hakki Deval, managing partner at Turkish owner Devbulk, the complexity is an inescapable factor. “Geopolitical volatility is another persistent source of risk,” Deval notes. “From disruptions in key waterways to constantly evolving sanctions regimes, trade patterns can shift abruptly. Experienced shipowners can navigate these risks – but it does add complexity and requires disciplined operational management.” He captures the current mood succinctly: “It is challenging, but it is also becoming part of the normal operating landscape of global shipping.”

Alex Karydis, a director at German owner Hanse Bereederung, emphasises that trade isn’t disappearing, it is merely moving. “Despite uncertainty in the long run, trade flows are reorganising rather than disappearing,” he argues. “This restructuring favours flexible, well-specified tonnage and owners who understand deployment, emissions performance, and charterer needs in detail. In that sense, volatility is creating opportunity for those positioned correctly.”

However, Karydis warns of the “double burden” of geopolitical and regulatory noise. “The main concern is not demand itself, but regulatory and geopolitical unpredictability occurring simultaneously. Owners and charterers are being asked to make long-term decisions on assets, fuels, and compliance frameworks while key elements remain unresolved or subject to political pressure.” This forces a difficult strategic outlook, with Karydis noting that “fragmentation now appears structural rather than cyclical.”

The existential risk

For some, the outlook is more dire. Mark O’Neil, CEO of shipmanager Columbia Group, warns that many operators are fundamentally unequipped for the world that is emerging. “Many vessel operators and clients who have invested considerably on the basis of existing trade routes and markets will see those trade routes and markets evaporate or radically change,” O’Neil warns. “They will struggle to keep up with the pace of change, reshape their business models and redeploy their assets.”

O’Neil sees the current geopolitical environment as a direct threat to the international order. “Unfortunately, I do not believe we are yet at peak geopolitical dislocation. There will be a further breakdown of the international rules-based order and a steady shift to regional regulation and the predominance of nation state interests.” He believes this will force a consolidation in the industry.

Pradeep Chawla, CEO of training organisation Marine Pals, agrees that the turbulence ahead is significant. “It is my belief that the standoffs between the big powers will continue for the coming years,” he says. “The realignment of the world order has historically never been done in a peaceful or rational manner. The turmoil ultimately does settle down and during the turmoil some industries will win and some will lose.”

The uncertainty tax

The practical result of this era is what Captain Pappu Sastry, CEO of Adhira Shipping & Logistics, describes as an “uncertainty tax” on every voyage. “We are in a persistent phase of fragmentation,” Sastry says. “This means longer and less predictable tradelanes, heavier compliance burdens, and insurance or war-risk swings that can change voyage economics quickly.” For Sastry, fragmentation is manageable but expensive: “It is not a market killer, but it is an uncertainty tax. It rewards operators who invest in documentation discipline, strong contracts, and conservative leverage.”

Ika Bethari, president director of Indonesian owner Asian Bulk Logistics, notes the ripple effects. “Geopolitical fragmentation remains a concern. Disruptions across major trade corridors inevitably lead to delays, higher costs, and operational uncertainty throughout the supply chain, with the impact ultimately felt by end consumers.”

Arun Sharma, executive chairman of the Indian Register of Shipping, highlights the danger to technical standards. “Unclear transition pathways, uneven regulation and geopolitical disruption make long-term investment decisions harder and risk diverting attention from safety and compliance.” He adds, “What is worrying is that division and uncertainty are becoming the new normal. Different rules, trade routes and restrictions are increasing the cost and complexity of running ships.”

Defining the new baseline

Leaders are increasingly classifying this period not as a glitch, but as a reboot of the system. Stuart Ostrow, CEO of ShipMoney, points to a fundamental shift in perception. “What feels different now is that disruption has become structural rather than cyclical,” he says.

Kris Vedat, CEO of SmartSea, suggests that the skills required to win have changed. “In this environment, resilience, visibility and decision-making speed matter far more than marginal efficiency gains,” he says. “Shipping has always operated globally; now it must also operate with sustained ambiguity and rapidly shifting constraints.”

Sven Brooks, CEO of ScanReach, sees the interaction of technology and geography as the defining feature. “What makes this period different is that geopolitical complexity now interacts directly with operational, commercial, and compliance considerations. As a result, volatility is no longer episodic – it is becoming a standing condition that the industry must plan around, rather than wait out.”

Matthew Costello, CEO of Voyager Portal, sees the impact in the day-to-day work of chartering and operations. “One big reason for pessimism is that geopolitical uncertainty has become the norm, and its impact is already showing up. The playbook you used last quarter might not price the voyage correctly today.”

Vikas Trivedi, co-CEO of shipmanagement at Synergy Marine Group, offers the final word on the shift from prediction to preparedness. “The challenge is less about individual events and more about cumulative friction across trade routes, regulations and crew mobility. Shipping has always operated in imperfect conditions, but those with strong governance, diversified experience and measured judgement will be better placed to navigate prolonged uncertainty than those optimised solely for stable environments.”

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