The dry bulk market has been trending higher so far in 2026, as it is being propelled by strong tailwinds. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “the dry bulk market has entered 2026 on a markedly firmer footing, with the strong finish of 2025 and the solid opening weeks of the new year translating directly into higher asset values across all size segments. Freight momentum has not only restored confidence but has also pushed second-hand prices to levels that, in the case of Capesizes, have not been witnessed since the peak cycle of 2008. Quarterly averages from the Baltic timecharter data clearly illustrate the shift. Q4 2025 closed substantially higher than Q4 2024, with the average Baltic Capesize 5TC up by 58% year-on-year. Kamsarmax 5TC followed closely with a 52% increase, while Ultramax 11TC and Handysize 7TC posted gains of 26% and 22% respectively. The recovery was therefore broad-based, led by the larger sizes but firmly supported by the geared segments”.

Source: Xclusiv

According to Xclusiv, “the first half of Q1 2026 confirms that the upward trend remains intact. Compared to the same period in 2025, Capesize 5TC earnings are running 140% higher, Kamsarmax up 70%, Ultramax up 44% and Handysize up 39%. When measured against first half of Q1 2024, Capesize rates are already 11% firmer, while Kamsarmax and Handysize are hovering around similar levels to those seen two years ago. Ultramax earnings are marginally softer, approximately 8% below first half of Q1 2024, but still significantly stronger than last year’s comparable period. This earnings resilience has provided the fundamental backbone for the surge in asset prices. Second-hand values reflect this dynamic clearly. Capesize prices for 5-, 10- and 15-year-old vessels have climbed to 18-year high. A recent sale of a 16-year-old Japanese-built Capesize at mid/high USD 32 million implies a 15-year-old benchmark valuation at high USD 34 million, representing the strongest level since September 2008 and roughly 19% above 2024 averages. Since October 2025 alone, 5- and 10-year-old Capesize prices have increased by around 6%, while 15-year-old units have surged by approximately 25%, highlighting particularly strong appetite for vintage tonnage with immediate trading potential”.

Meanwhile, the shipbroker added that “the strength is not confined to Capesizes. Kamsarmax values across 5-, 10- and 15-year-old units have returned to levels seen in Q3 and Q4 2024. Since October 2025, prices for 5- and 10-year-old vessels have risen by around 5%, while 15-year-old ships have gained approximately 13%. Ultramax values show a similar pattern. Five-year-old units have increased by about 12% since October, 10-year-olds by 8%, while 15-year-old Supramaxes remain broadly stable. A 6-year-old Japanese-built Ultramax recently sold at low USD 34 million, matching levels last observed in summer 2024. Handysize values are also aligned with Q3–Q4 2024 territory, with limited but firm movement across age groups. An important driver behind the recent price escalation, particularly for younger eco-vessels, is the limited availability of prompt tonnage for sale. Owners appear reluctant to part with modern ships amid improving earnings visibility, while buyers remain eager to secure fuel-efficient units with longer trading horizons. This imbalance between supply and demand is exerting upward pressure, especially on 5- and 10-year-old vessels where buying competition is most intense”.

Source: Xclusiv

“With Capesize values already surpassing post-2008 highs and setting a new cycle benchmark, attention shifts to medium and smaller segments. Kamsarmax, Ultramax and Handysize prices have stabilised at strong multi-year levels, broadly aligned with 2024 peaks, but have not matched the Capesize surge. If freight remains resilient and post–Chinese New Year momentum persists through 2026, geared segments may follow—first breaking above 2024 highs and edging closer to Sep 2008 territory”, Xclusiv concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide