Geopolitics aren’t exclusive to the tanker market, as it seems that they could also have an impact on the dry bulk segment as well. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “China’s rush to lock in Africa’s battery metals is not just an EV or geopolitics story – it will possibly quietly reshape dry bulk trade. Africa holds roughly 30% of global mineral resources and punches far above its weight in the battery suite. The Democratic Republic of Congo already supplies more than 70% of mined cobalt & holds about half of global reserves. South Africa, Gabon and Ghana account for over 60% of manganese output. Zimbabwe, DRC and Mali are emerging lithium producers, & Mozambique and Madagascar are fast-growing sources of natural graphite”.

According to Xclusiv, “China has moved early and decisively to turn this geology into captive supply. Around 22% of its investments in Africa is now tied to mining and associated infrastructure, with railways, roads and ports linking the Copperbelt, the Kalahari manganese field or Zimbabwe’s lithium belt directly to Chinese smelters and gigafactories. In 2024 China sourced more than 80% of its cobalt and manganese ore imports from Africa, underlining how central this corridor has become to Beijing’s energy-transition strategy. On the water, this is already visible in niche but fast-growing bulk trades. Guinea’s bauxite exports reached almost 100m tonnes in the first half of 2025, up 36% year-on-year, with Chinese-controlled miners responsible for over 60% of volumes. Zimbabwe exported about 1m tonnes of spodumene concentrate between January and September 2025, roughly 27–30% higher than a year earlier despite weaker lithium prices, again driven largely by Chinese offtake. Mozambique and Madagascar together already produce around 150,000 tonnes per annum of natural graphite, while new Chinese-backed projects could add roughly 260,000 tpa of concentrate capacity – all cargo that naturally falls into Handy to Panamax dry bulk space”.

The shipbroker said that “set against a global dry bulk market that carried more than 5.6bn tonnes in 2024, these volumes are still small, but they matter for two reasons: growth and distance. Traditional pillars such as coal and iron ore are mature and increasingly constrained by decarbonisation politics, whereas lithium, cobalt, manganese and graphite sit at the heart of the energy transition. Voyages from Nacala, Beira, Matadi or Lobito to North China are inherently long-haul; any future diversification toward European or US gigafactories would only extend tonne-miles further. Policy is reinforcing the trend. Zimbabwe’s ban on unprocessed lithium exports has forced Chinese investors to finance concentrators and, in some cases, chemical plants at mine sites, turning opportunistic shipments into steady industrial cargo flows – exactly the kind of pattern that underpins period employment for geared bulkers. Guinea is pushing miners toward local alumina, while South Africa is encouraging more manganese alloy production; both moves support additional coastal and intra-African bulk legs alongside long-haul exports. Meanwhile, S&P Global expects sizeable structural deficits in lithium and copper by 2035 even after new projects, while China has started to restrict exports of certain processed materials such as graphite. That combination almost guarantees more African mining investment and invites Western and Japanese buyers to compete for offtake that until now flowed almost exclusively to China. If contracts begin splitting between east and west, routing becomes less efficient and tonne-miles rise”, Xclusiv noted.

“For dry bulk owners, Africa’s battery-metal build-out will not replace iron ore or coal, but it can provide a structurally growing, “green-aligned” layer of demand concentrated in Handy/Supra and smaller Panamax tonnage. In a market where traditional cargoes look cyclical and politically exposed, these new ore corridors may become one of the more resilient demand stories of the 2030s”, Xclusiv concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide