The dry bulk market is expected to firm into a period of “cautious stability” by the time industry players gather in Geneva next month, according to Amrit Singh, senior manager of shipping at London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

Speaking ahead of Geneva Dry, Singh says the market would likely find a balance between steady demand and a growing supply of new vessels.

“By late April, expect the dry bulk market to be in a state of ‘cautious stability’ characterised by a balance between moderate demand growth and an accelerating new vessel supply,” he says.

The seasonal slowdown linked to the Lunar New Year will have passed by then, with activity picking up as South American grain exports hit their stride and construction demand strengthens in the Northern Hemisphere.

“Expect capesize bulkers to be supported by bauxite shipments from Guinea and high-grade iron ore exports from Simandou, which recently began operating,” Singh says, adding that soybean exports from South America would underpin tonne-mile demand for panamax and supramax vessels.

Coal remains less predictable. “Coal is a bit of ‘wildcard’ with China leaning to more renewables. However, India could pick up this slack by importing coal,” he notes.

Beyond commodity flows, Singh points to geopolitics and decarbonisation as key variables shaping the market.

“The other disrupting factors would be geopolitics and decarbonisation,” he says, warning that shifting US policies and evolving international frameworks could add friction to global trade and force operators to adapt quickly to tariffs and regional carbon rules.

These themes are expected to feature heavily in discussions at Geneva Dry, alongside the growing role of artificial intelligence.

“Major talking points at the event are expected to be changing geopolitics landscape, path of maritime decarbonisation and the how shipping is adopting AI,” Singh says.

On the technology side, LSEG is positioning itself around trusted data and AI integration. Singh says the company’s approach is focused on delivering structured, licensed datasets that clients can use with confidence.

“LSEG’s AI strategy, LSEG Everywhere, is built on delivering trusted, licensed data at scale to power AI across financial services,” he says, stressing that its datasets are “permissioned, governed and contractually licensed for client use.”

Through partnerships with major tech firms, LSEG is embedding its data into platforms widely used by clients. “This ensures AI models operate on authoritative content with clear usage rights, preserving both data integrity and commercial value,” Singh adds.

The group is also rolling out new tools for the maritime sector, including a vessel tracking API designed to provide real-time insights and analytics.

Looking ahead to Geneva, Singh expects the focus will be on engaging with the market and showcasing new capabilities.

“We are looking forward to connecting with professionals who visit from across the world and displaying how we are ‘Simplifying Shipping’ in our platform LSEG Workspace,” he says.

LSEG will return to the event with a booth, where it plans to highlight its transition to cloud-based systems and demonstrate new data-driven products for shipping.

Geneva Dry comes at a time when markets are navigating both cyclical and structural shifts, with participants expected to weigh near-term trade drivers against longer-term changes in regulation, technology and fleet supply.

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