Liberia’s sudden push to expand iron ore exports is creating fresh opportunities for capesize employment in 2026, Braemar analysis indicates, as larger vessels begin to replace supramax and ultramax tonnage on key loadings.

Discussions about West African bulk growth have centred on Guinea and Simandou, but Liberia is quietly moving up the curve. Official data and AXSMarine tracking show Liberian exports averaged just 4.2m tonnes a year from 2020-24; last year shipments jumped to near 10m tonnes as ArcelorMittal ramps its new concentrator toward a phase two target of 20m tonnes a year. Braemar notes that rail and port upgrades at Buchanan now permit regular loadings onto standard Capes and newcastlemaxes – a major shift from the draft‑limited trade previously dominated by smaller bulkers.

The change is visible in vessel tracking: several loadings in H2 2025 moved on to capesize‑size ships bound largely for China. 

ArcelorMittal’s own 2026 target of 18m tonnes would add roughly 8m tonnes year‑on‑year; Liberia’s mines minister has gone further, claiming a national export surge to 25-30m tonnes in 2026 once “new and revived” mines come online.

If realised, that scale will materially increase tonne‑mile demand for large bulkers and offer owners additional trading options beyond established West African suppliers. Importantly, ArcelorMittal is expanding rail capacity to 30m tonnes a year for its exclusive exports, underpinning steady off‑take rather than ad‑hoc spikes.

Braemar concluded that Liberia’s expansion is smaller than Guinea’s potential but strategically significant: it creates a complementary capesize corridor from West Africa to Asia and Europe, reshaping routing choices and providing a new source of long‑haul demand for large bulk tonnage in 2026.