According to Drewry AIS data, Capesize cargo loadings in January 2026 were the highest ever recorded for January, setting the tone for an unusually tight market. Strong demand coincided with limited fleet growth, as high delivery slippage curtailed effective supply. As a result, Capesize rates defied their usual seasonal decline.

Freight rates typically soften in January amid seasonal disruptions, weaker commodity demand, post-holiday inertia and the upcoming Chinese New Year holidays, which weigh on vessel utilisation. However, January 2026 proved to be a clear exception in the Capesize market, with charter rates strengthening from December.

According to Drewry, Capesize TC rates increased from $24,700pd in December 2025 to $26,500pd in January 2026, defying the usual seasonal downturn. This resilience was also reflected in Baltic indicators, where the Capesize C5TC averaged $21,400pd in January. Notably, this uptick in rates exceeded market expectations at the start of the year, as the Baltic FFA for January 2026, as reported in early January, stood at $19,700pd.

The divergence between FFA pricing and subsequent spot earnings underscores the extent to which market fundamentals tightened during the month. One of the primary drivers was strong demand-side dynamics. Drewry AIS-based loading data shows that Capesize cargo loadings in January 2026 were higher than in any previous January on record. This is a particularly important development, as January is typically associated with lower loading volumes due to weather disruptions, industrial slowdowns in key exporting regions, and the upcoming Chinese New Year holidays. Instead, robust iron ore and coal shipments sustained high vessel utilisation levels throughout the month, tightening prompt tonnage availability.

At the same time, restricted fleet growth led to a tight Capesize market. Vessel deliveries, which normally add incremental supply at the start of the year, were unusually weak. High delivery slippage meant that most tonnage scheduled for January failed to enter the fleet on time, materially limiting supply growth. As a result, the anticipated seasonal increase in vessel availability did not materialise.

Muted supply growth, along with exceptionally strong loadings, created a tight market. This explains why spot earnings outperformed FFA expectations and why rates moved counter to their normal seasonal pattern.

Conclusion

The month of January was characterised by an unusual alignment of supply-side constraints and demand strength. High delivery slippage curtailed fleet growth as cargo loadings surged to record levels this January, supporting Capesize rates despite seasonal headwinds.
Source: Drewry