The fourth week of the Persian Gulf war has produced a flurry of competing signals for commercial shipping – a US peace framework, a conditional Iranian offer to allow some vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, grave warnings about mines in the waterway, and a bunker market that industry veterans describe as the worst supply shock in living memory.

Donald Trump is actively seeking a one-month ceasefire with Iran, with Middle East envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff working on a framework involving a declaration of a month-long ceasefire during which both sides would negotiate. A 15-point peace plan, modelled on Trump’s Gaza deal and confirmed by two officials briefed on the talks, demands Iran dismantle all nuclear and long-range missile capabilities, open the Strait of Hormuz and sever ties with proxy groups across the Middle East. In return, Tehran would receive assistance with its civilian nuclear programme and the lifting of all international sanctions.

Iran has not publicly accepted the framework. Instead, Tehran has sent a formal letter to all 15 members of the UN Security Council and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, later circulated to 176 IMO member states, stating that vessels deemed “non-hostile” may be permitted safe passage through the strait provided they coordinate in advance with Iranian authorities and comply with all declared safety regulations. The offer explicitly excludes any vessels belonging to or linked with the United States, Israel or other parties Iran considers to be aggressor states.

The conditional opening offers little immediate comfort to commercial operators. Maritime intelligence firm Windward warns that the security environment within the strait is simultaneously deteriorating, with US intelligence assessments indicating the deployment of multiple Iranian naval mines within the waterway – including both moored and limpet-style devices designed to evade detection. These systems rely on magnetic and acoustic sensors, allowing them to activate without direct contact. “This development introduces a persistent sub-surface threat layer to an already constrained operating environment,” Windward noted.

The mine warning effectively renders the Iranian offer academic for most Western-affiliated shipping until the waterway can be assessed and cleared – a process that could take weeks even after any ceasefire is declared.

Meanwhile, the commercial damage accumulates. Splash Extra’s analysis of the bunker market this week found VLSFO prices more than doubling at key hubs in five weeks, with physical availability narrowing daily. 

“Fujairah is functionally offline, Singapore and Rotterdam are trying to absorb displaced demand, and every additional week of Hormuz disruption tightens global marine fuel supply chains,” Windward warned this week.

Industry veterans are unambiguous about the severity. “There’s been no equivalent supply shock for bunkers in recent memory that we can refer to,” said Jack Jordan, managing editor of Ship & Bunker. Gus Majed, group CEO of Paratus, placed the crisis in the starkest possible historical context, describing it as “the largest oil supply disruption in history by volume”.

Advice to shipowners is converging on the same three priorities: treat the disruption as a prolonged event rather than a temporary spike, secure physical fuel supply now, and build maximum flexibility into port and grade decisions. As Jordan put it: “There has never been a better time than this to put some more complex thought into bunker procurement.”