The U.S. Department of Agriculture slightly pared its U.S. soybean export estimate for the current crop season on Friday after China, the world’s top soy importer, largely shunned American shipments in favor of South American supplies in its trade war with Washington.

The USDA projected exports at 1.635 billion bushels for the 2025/26 (Sept/Aug) marketing year, down 50 million bushels from its September estimate, reflecting a 13% decline from the previous year. Export sales through late September were down 36% from the same point a year earlier due to the absence of Chinese demand, according to USDA data.

The USDA also released a trove of large daily export sales that occurred during the U.S. government shutdown showing 1.348 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans sold from October 2 to November 12, including 332,000 tons confirmed sold to China.

Slumping U.S. soybean export demand dragged prices for the oilseed to near five-year lows this fall before hopes for a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks ignited a steep rally in mid-October and offered farmers the opportunity to sell their harvest at the highest price this season. Growers had been facing negative returns on soybeans all year.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins both said China vowed to resume U.S. soy purchases and buy 12 million metric tons of the oilseed this year after a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of October. But China has yet to officially confirm what was agreed in the talks two weeks ago and has purchased only minimal volumes so far.

The USDA forecast that Chinese purchases would accelerate, but acknowledged that cheaper South American supplies have undercut demand for American soy following a steep rally in U.S. prices since mid-October.

“Since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the United States no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters,” the USDA said.

Benchmark Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures extended losses on Friday after the USDA data was released, trading down about 1.4% near midday at $11.31 per bushel.

“What jumped out is that the USDA didn’t change export and crush numbers for soy. The only real adjustment was production changes,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX. “The market had built in bullish hopes and what we’re seeing is that bullish hopes weren’t there so it’s taking profits on the rally.”
Source: Reuters