Coal imports in February fell on both a year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Given the widening price inversion between imported coal and domestic coal, it is expected that coal imports may decline further. However, domestic energy supply security measures are likely to be correspondingly strengthened to help mitigate the impact of external supply disruptions.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, CICC issued a research report stating that data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that raw coal production from January to February 2026 was 763 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; coal imports were 77.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. Coal imports in February alone fell both year-on-year and month-on-month. Considering the widening price inversion between imported coal and domestic coal, it is expected that coal imports may further decline. However, domestic energy supply support may be correspondingly strengthened to help mitigate the impact of external supply disruptions. On the price side, if the situation in Iran persists longer than expected, overseas energy supply risks may escalate, at which point domestic coal prices may gradually follow suit. Additionally, considering energy supply security, global inventory demand may increase over the long term, raising the central level of energy prices.

The main viewpoints of CICC are as follows:

Overseas supply decline
Raw coal production from January to February was 763 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Daily average production for the first two months was 12.93 million tons, an 8.3% drop compared to December of the previous year. During the same period, coal imports totaled 77.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. In February alone, imports amounted to 30.94 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26% and a month-on-month decrease of 33%. It is judged that disturbances in Indonesian coal exports may have impacted domestic imports in February. Looking ahead, given the widening price gap between imported coal and domestic coal, coal imports are expected to decline further. However, domestic energy supply support may be strengthened accordingly to help stabilize the impact of external supply disruptions.

Steady growth in electricity demand
Electricity generation by large-scale enterprises increased by 4.1% year-on-year to 1,571.8 billion kilowatt-hours from January to February, including thermal power, which grew by 3.3% year-on-year to 1,053.9 billion kilowatt-hours. Hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power increased by 6.8%, 0.8%, 5.3%, and 9.9%, respectively.

Thermal coal: Overseas supply disruptions support off-season coal prices
Since March, the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao has been 747 yuan per ton, up 4% from February and 9% higher than the average price in March of the previous year. As of March 13, the closing price was 736 yuan per ton. Following the escalation of tensions in Iran, domestic coal prices have shown a weaker trend, diverging from the rise in overseas energy prices. Due to overall weak demand, the arrival of the traditional off-season, and market expectations of stronger domestic energy supply support, domestic coal prices did not rise simultaneously. If the situation in Iran lasts longer than expected, overseas energy supply risks may intensify, at which point domestic coal prices may gradually catch up. Additionally, considering energy supply security, global inventory demand may increase over the long term, raising the central level of energy prices.

Coking coal: Weak performance continues
Pig iron and crude steel production from January to February were 138 million tons and 160 million tons, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 2.7% and 3.6%. Steel exports totaled 15.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. Since March, the average price of prime coking coal at Jingtang Port has been 1,600 yuan per ton, down 6% from February’s average but up 14% compared to March of the previous year. Costs may provide some support for coking coal prices, but weak domestic demand, uncertain external demand, and expectations of supply recovery may keep coking coal prices under pressure.

Risk Factors
Geopolitical conflicts last longer than expected; demand falls short of expectations; supply exceeds expected release.
Source: Zhitong Finance