Copper prices surged towards record highs on Monday as concerns about supplies intensified following a strike at a Chilean mine, forecasts for deficits and low stocks in London Metal Exchange approved warehouses.

Benchmark copper HG1! on the London Metal Exchange was up 2.7% at $12,811 a metric ton at 1138 GMT from an earlier high at $12,905.5. Prices of the metal used in power and construction hit a record $12,960 a ton last week.

Traders said a strike at Capstone Copper’s CS Mantoverde copper and gold mine in northern Chile had reinforced the theme of shortages.

The Mantoverde mine is expected to produce between 29,000 and 32,000 metric tons of copper. While this is only a fraction of the global mined production forecast of around 24 million tons this year, it reinforces expectations of shortfalls.

“We forecast 2026 copper demand growth of about 3% versus refined supply growth of less than 1% resulting in a 300,000-400,000 ton deficit that lifts to about 500,000 tons in 2027,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

Fuelling the copper price rise is a drop in LME stocks, which at 142,550 tons are down 55% since late August.

Much of the copper leaving the LME system has gone to the United States, where prices are also elevated (HGc1) because copper tariffs remain under review even as copper was given an exemption from import levies that came into force on August 1.

Elsewhere, aluminium earlier touched $3,069 a ton ALI1!, its highest since April 2022 due to worries about potential shortages, partly due to China’s 45 million-ton cap.

“For the last 20 years, the LME price has basically been dictated by the capital costs in China,” said Gregory Wittbecker, President at Wittsend Commodity Advisors.

“Now the market has got to start thinking about CapEx in places like Indonesia.”

Aluminium was up 1.5% at $3,060, zinc ZNC1! gained 1.4% to $3,171, lead LEAD1! rose 0.2% to $2,011, nickel NICKEL1! firmed 0.4% to $16,885 and tin FTIN1! climbed 3.5% to $41,925.

Traders short covering in a low-volume market were behind tin’s big advance.
Source: Reuters