Corn futures hovered around $4.30 per bushel, struggling to extend a late-January rebound as mounting South American supply risks clash with a massive global surplus.

In Brazil, the pivotal ‘Safrinha’ second-crop planting has reached 50% of the Center-South area, well behind last year’s 64% pace, as erratic rainfall threatens the yield of a crop securing 75% of national output.

While Argentina’s crop ratings improved to 51%, production forecasts remain tempered at 57 million metric tons due to heat stress and ‘leafhopper’ infestations in late-planted fields.

Support from a resilient US ethanol sector, steady at 1.1 million barrels per day, provides a structural floor; however, a ‘wall of corn’ in US silos keeps the ceiling firm, with ending stocks at a six-year high of 2.3 billion bushels.

This bearish weight is magnified by the new 15% global tariff, which has bolstered the US Dollar and handed a decisive pricing advantage to Ukrainian and Brazilian exporters.
Source: Trading Economics