Iron ore futures showed a slight upward trend today. The main contract I2609 closed at 786.5 RMB/ton, up 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices also rose by 1-3 RMB/ton. Traders quoted actively, while steel mills restocked as needed. Overall spot transaction sentiment was relatively stable. According to SMM survey data, the average daily hot metal output of 242 sample steel mills this week stood at 2.4494 million tons, an increase of 5,300 tons week-on-week. Looking ahead to next week, hot metal output is expected to edge down slightly and will likely fluctuate within a narrow range after peaking. In addition, BHP announced the conclusion of its long-term contract negotiations last night. While some details emerged in the market today, it remains to be confirmed whether spot shipments of banned grades will be released in the short term. Overall, the impact of this event is gradually diminishing and is expected to have limited influence on prices. Nevertheless, given the possibility that the Politburo meeting at the end of this month may reinforce policy expectations related to “anti-involution,” coupled with rigid restocking demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday, iron ore prices are expected to continue their upward-biased range-bound trend.

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Source: Metals Market Index (MMI)