Today, the DCE iron ore market traded with a weak, volatile bias. The benchmark contract, I2605, ultimately closed at 762.5 RMB/tonne, representing a marginal decline of 0.07% from the previous trading session. Conversely, spot prices in the physical market rose slightly by approximately 4 RMB/tonne. Traders demonstrated moderate enthusiasm for quoting, with transaction prices largely determined through negotiation on firm bids. Steel mills prioritised rigid demand restocking, maintaining a cautious approach to inquiries. Overall, the market trading atmosphere remained average. According to the latest SMM statistics for this week, daily average hot metal output from sample blast furnaces recorded 2.386 million tonnes, an increase of 15,800 tonnes week-onweek. This growth is primarily attributed to the incremental contribution from blast furnaces resuming production following maintenance. Looking ahead, as the intensity of blast furnace maintenance weakens on the margin, daily average hot metal output is projected to maintain a steady upward trajectory. This will provide sustained rigid support for iron ore demand, signalling a substantive improvement in the demand-side fundamentals. However, the market remains suppressed by a “dual high” inventory structure—comprising elevated in-plant stocks at steel mills and visible inventories at ports. These ample inventory levels act as an effective buffer against the release of raw material procurement demand, creating a distinct lag in the transmission of incremental rigid demand to the price mechanism. On balance, amidst the interplay of recovering rigid demand and persistent inventory pressure, iron ore prices are expected to exhibit a pattern of low-level volatility with a firm bias in the short term. The overall price centre is likely to shift marginally upwards.

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Source: Metals Market Index (MMI)