Today, Dalian iron ore futures weakened in early trading before staging a minor recovery in the a ernoon session. The benchmark contract I2605 ulmately closed at 788 RMB/ tonne, represen ng a decline of 0.51% from the previous trading day. In the physical market, prices rose by 2–3 RMB/tonne. Traders displayed average enthusiasm for quo ng, predominantly adop ng a ‘follow-the-market’ strategy. Steel mills focused on procurement based on rigid demand, with ac ve inquiries, leading to a slight warming of the overall transac on atmosphere. According to SMM sta s cs for this week, the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron output stood at 2.0264 million tonnes, a decrease of 1,900 tonnes from the previous period. Next week, the impact from maintenance is projected to decrease further by 172,000 tonnes week-on-week. Consequently, the overall trend for iron ore demand is showing improvement. Although Brazil has entered its tradi onal rainy season—leading to expecta ons of a seasonal decline in produc on and shipments—and demand is marginally improving, which theore cally supports a supply contrac on thesis, the reality is different. Port inventories con nue to run at high levels, and the short-term accumula on trend shows no significant signs of reversal. The suppressive effect generated by this massive inventory base completely negates the bullish factor of reduced shipments, resul ng in heavy overhead pressure on futures prices. Therefore, iron ore prices are unlikely to establish a unilateral trend in the short term and will most likely maintain a range-bound oscilla on.

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Source: Metals Market Index (MMI)