Russia has lowered its forecast for gas exports and production while increasing projections for oil exports in 2025, as the fallout from its conflict with Ukraine and strained ties with the West continues to weigh on the energy sector.

Although Russia’s economy has held up despite sanctions, growing signs of strain have appeared in several industries.

State-owned Gazprom incurred losses of almost $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, due to a rupture of ties with the European Union, once its main source of gas exporting revenues.

Russian gas now accounts for just 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, while the bloc’s oil imports from Russia have fallen to 3% from around 30% over that time. The European Union plans to fully phase out Russian energy by 2027.

According to recent projections compiled by the economy ministry, the Russian government now expects pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union to decline this year by 10.7% from 2024 to 72 billion cubic metres (bcm), reversing expectations of an increase.

Expectations for exports of sea-borne liquefied natural gas have also been scaled back as Russia struggles to sell LNG gas from Arctic LNG 2, under U.S. sanctions, which started processing at the end of 2023.

Arctic LNG 2 has started gas shipments to China.

LNG exports from Russia now seen edging up 3% this year to 35.7 million metric tons, still less than previously seen.

The document also showed that expectations for oil and gas exports in money terms were raised for this year to $206.1 billion from $200.3 billion in the previous estimates, while they were revised down for 2026 to $215.2 billion from $220.4 billion.

Oil exports for this year are now seen at 240.1 million tons, up from 229.7 million tons in the previous forecast.

The projections had been compiled before the wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, including on the major oil port of Primorsk in the Baltic Sea, putting a strain on Russia’s oil output.
Source: Reuters