Steel rebar futures climbed above CNY 3,060 per ton in late February, rebounding from multi-month lows as economic activity in China accelerated following the extended Lunar New Year holiday, with mills expected to ramp up production.

However, analysts anticipate that China’s steel demand will weaken in the first half of the year, potentially constraining the durability of the rebound.

The steel industry may also be concerned that the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs may trigger further protectionist measures given robust Chinese steel exports last year.

Still, China is expected to face lower average duties on its metal-intensive exports following the court’s decision, potentially boosting exports.

On the policy front, the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth straight month, offering limited fresh stimulus to the domestic steel market.
Source: Trading Economics