Venezuelan crude exports are expected to return to a typical run rate of 800,000 b/d, as the country shifts away from dark fleet tankers following a US naval blockade that has boosted demand for compliant vessels in the region and supported spot rates, executives at Teekay Tankers said Feb. 19.

“Just looking at where it’s tracking in February, we’re already back up to about 700,000 b/d of exports,” Christian Waldegrave, director of research and commercial performance, said during the company’s fourth quarter earnings call.

“And it’s all going on non-sanctioned ships primarily to the U.S. South Caribbean region, but we’ve also seen two or three cargoes to Europe. And we know that India is starting to buy some barrels as well,” he added.

The uptick in demand for newly compliant Venezuelan crude has re-directed the country’s oil trade away from sanctioned vessels to compliant tankers, primarily Aframaxes serving US Gulf and Caribbean destinations. This has created additional ton-mile demand in a market already supported by near-record global seaborne oil trade volumes, according to Teekay CEO Kenneth Hvid.
“Looking at our first quarter to date, the tanker market has continued to strengthen, and we have secured spot rates of $79,800, $56,900 and $51,400 per day for our VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax LR2 fleets, respectively,” Hvid added.
After falling to 500,000 b/d in December and January, a full recovery in the country’s exports would amount to around an extra 500,000 b/d shipped from Venezuela to the US Gulf, creating demand for approximately 20 Aframaxes, according to Teekay.

Venezuelan crude exports averaged 800,000 b/d in 2025, but plummeted after the US naval blockade began late December 2025, eliminating long-haul flows to China that had been moving on dark fleet vessels at a rate of 550,000 b/d, but now have fallen to zero.

“I think there’s an expectation as well that, with the Venezuelan oil industry opening up and foreign companies coming in and doing more investment, that production and exports could be boosted within the year by another 200,000 to 300,000 b/d,” Waldegrave said.

S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) data shows Venezuelan crude exports at 666,000 b/d (20.6 million barrels) in December 2025 and 637,000 b/d (19.7 million barrels) in January 2026. Month to date, February exports total 11.5 million barrels.

Notably, Venezuela has sent around 1.9 million barrels of crude to China this month, alongside 4.1 million barrels to the US and 1 million barrels each to Spain, St Lucia and the US Virgin Islands, according to CAS data.
Sanctions push vessels to compliant trade

The Venezuelan situation is part of a broader trend of sanctions pushing more global seaborne oil trade to compliant fleets. Sanctioned barrels at sea, including both tankers in transit and oil in floating storage, have increased more than 70% over the past 12 months as Russia and Iran face mounting difficulties shipping oil.

“Buyers of Russian and Iranian barrels are having to find alternative sources of oil using the compliant fleet in order to compensate for the loss of sanctioned oil,” Hvid said.

India became the top buyer of Russian crude over the past two to three years, with imports averaging 1.6 million b/d in 2025, Hvid said.

However, sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, coupled with an EU ban on refined products made from Russian crude, have led to a drop in imports to around 1 million b/d as of January 2026, with replacement barrels sourced from the Middle East and Atlantic Basin via compliant fleets.

A potential US-India trade deal could see India further reduce Russian crude imports, potentially pushing even more trade to compliant fleets in the coming months, according to Teekay.
Market conditions

Spot tanker rates during the fourth quarter of 2025 were the second highest for a fourth quarter in the last 15 years, supported by fundamental drivers, geopolitical events and seasonal factors.

Global seaborne oil trade volumes reached near-record highs during the quarter due to the unwinding of OPEC-plus supply cuts, coupled with rising oil production from non-OPEC-plus countries, particularly in the Americas.

The tanker market has continued to strengthen in early 2026, with midsized rates trending above the five-year high in February. Spot rates in the first quarter to date reached $79,800 per day for VLCCs, $56,900 for Suezmaxes and $51,400 for Aframax LR2 vessels.

Midsized tanker spot rates received additional support from disruptions at the CPC terminal in the Black Sea during November 2025, which reduced crude oil exports for around two months.

The outage opened arbitrage opportunities to bring US oil across the Atlantic to Europe, while poor weather in Europe prevented ships in ballast from returning across the Atlantic, driving very strong rates for both spot voyages and lightering in the US Gulf region.

According to Teekay, global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2026, in line with levels seen in 2024 and 2025.

Demand could be further boosted by strategic stockpiling, particularly in China, where the country is projected to add just under 1 million b/d to strategic reserves during 2026, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates.

Non-OPEC oil growth is projected to increase by 1.3 million b/d in 2026, led by the Americas. OPEC+ has also announced a pause on further unwinding in output during Q1 2026, but the group’s supply policy going forward remains “uncertain,” according to Teekay.

In terms of fleet availability, the average age of the fleet is now the highest in over 30 years, pointing to significant replacement demand in the coming years, according to Hvid.

The order book, which now stretches into 2029, is completely offset by the number of compliant tankers reaching age 20 over the same timeframe, not to mention the dark fleet of tankers, which already has an average age of over 20 years.
Source: Platts