VLCC freight surged to extraordinary theoretical levels on Monday as the war between Iran and the US‑Israel coalition roiled shipping in the Persian Gulf, with some 3,200 vessels stuck in the region. The benchmark TD3C from the Middle East to China was quoted at $423,700 a day, up $205,600 from the day before. Brokers cautioned that confirmed fixtures at those eye‑watering levels were not forthcoming.

Iranian officials compounded the crisis by asserting control over the strait. Iranian state media quoted senior commanders saying the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned that “the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze” if they try to pass, a statement that has heightened market fear over the potential to trap 14-15m barrels per day of crude in the Middle East Gulf.

The widespread attacks across the region come as the US secretary of state Marco Rubio said last night “the hardest hits” on Iran are “yet to come” with no indication of how long this military campaign will last. 

Iranian attacks have already struck merchant shipping and regional infrastructure. Clarksons Research reports at least six ships damaged – including Stena Imperative, Sea La Donna, Hercules Star, Ocean Electra, Skylight and MKD Vyom – plus multiple strikes on ports and energy sites. A Monday port strike in Bahrain killed a shipyard worker, injured two others and damaged a US‑flagged tanker. 

Market monitors warn the disruption is less a formal blockade than paralysis. “This is not a formal blockade – it is risk‑driven paralysis,” Kpler said, noting the strait typically handles 80-100 transits per day and moves roughly a fifth of global oil consumption; bypass pipelines lack the capacity to offset a major sustained outage.

The effects differ sharply by sector. Tankers are hardest hit: Clarksons flagged theoretical VLCC earnings at record highs while rival broker Arrow said it was unlikely to see any VLCC activity on the surface in the immediate few days.

LNG and LPG markets are also destabilised. Clarksons reports Ras Laffan LNG was offline, sending regional gas prices sharply higher and prompting short‑term LNG carrier rate rises of more than 20%. LPG flows – some 30% reliant on Hormuz – face similar supply and freight shocks. Bunker prices have climbed alongside crude.

Containers see limited direct volume exposure – around 2% move via Hormuz. However, carrier disruption is material: major lines, including MSC, have suspended all bookings for worldwide cargo to the Middle East region until further notice. Liner reroutings toward the Cape and alternate hubs will intensify congestion in Europe and Asia.

Dry bulk is the least affected directly but faces secondary congestion and delays. 

Clarksons Research noted that as of last night, 3,200 vessels remain inside the Gulf, equating to 4% of global tonnage, including 112 crude tankers and 114 containerships; roughly 500 vessels are waiting off the UAE and Oman coastlines.