Adani International Container Terminal Pvt. Ltd. (AICTPL, or the project) is a container terminal operator based in Mundra, Gujarat, in northwestern India. The company operates CT3 and CT3 extension, with four berths and a total length of 1,460 meters and cargo handling capacity of 3.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Sub-concession rights for CT3 were granted in August 2012 and expire in February 2031.

The terminal’s deepest available draft at berth is 17.5 meters. It is equipped with 51 RTG (rubber tyre gantry) cranes and 17 super post panamax quay cranes, and is capable of handling ultra large container carriers with nominal capacity of 10,000 TEU and above.

AICTPL is a 50/50 joint venture between Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. (APSEZ; BBB-/Positive/–) and Terminal Investment Ltd. (not rated). APSEZ is a part of Adani Group, an Indian conglomerate. Terminal Investment, the sixth-largest container terminal operator worldwide, is majority owned by Switzerland-based Mediterranean Shipping Co. SA (MSC, not rated), the largest shipping liner in the world. The joint venture was formed in 2011.

AICTPL’s strong operating performance will continue to underpin its robust cash flows and DSCR. The project’s high capacity utilization and throughput volumes will support healthy ratios, with a minimum DSCR of 1.85x. The minimum DSCR occurs during the half year ending Sept. 30, 2030 (excluding the last period for which we expect the repayment would be out of reserves). This ratio has improved significantly from about 1.7x over the past three years.

We expect AICTPL’s high utilization rate of about 92% to continue, given the terminal’s strategic geographic location and broad rail and road connectivity to India’s industrial hinterland. The terminal also sees broad cargo variety from its catchment area, with no significant reliance on any single product base or industry.

AICTPL’s ability to maintain resilient cargo volumes under shifting trade conditions supports strong cash flow stability and project creditworthiness. The container terminal operator is on track to deliver strong operating performance in fiscal 2026 (ending March 31, 2026; we estimate throughput volume at about 3.14 million TEUs.

Changes to U.S. trade policies have a limited impact on throughput volumes, given minimal U.S. bound cargo from the terminal. Utilization remained high at above 90% despite slight operational disruption following border tensions between India and Pakistan in May 2025. This situation led to about 7% decline in cargo volumes on a trailing 12-month basis as of Sept. 30, 2025.

Export and import (exim) cargo volumes account for about 57% of AICTPL’s total volumes as of Sept. 30, 2025, with the rest being transshipment. We forecast roughly a 50/50 split between exim and transshipment volumes, given there can be some changes in the mix between the two. Healthy exim demand in Mundra’s catchment area will support cargo volumes.

Also, we do not expect the commissioning of Vizhinjam port in Kerala state to materially dent AICTPL’s transshipment volumes due to the presence of MSC and its involvement in designing shipping routes.

AICTPL has in the past been able to withstand trade tensions through business cycles and competitive pressures within the sector. The project’s volumes have typically rebounded quickly within the next year after any decline.

A strong covenant package mitigates risks from balloon payment at maturity. AICTPL’s reserving mechanism that traps funds in exclusive reserves should ensure sufficient amounts are available to repay the 20.5% balloon payment of US$300 million on Feb. 16, 2031. As such, we exclude the DSCR corresponding to the final scheduled debt-servicing period in our forecast minimum DSCR.

The project’s robust covenant package includes a forward-looking project life coverage ratio of 1.95x, which semi-annually tests debt sizing and sweeps cash to the senior debt service redemption reserve in the event of a shortfall.

The stable outlook on our long-term issue rating on AICTPL indicates that we expect the terminal to maintain predictable cash flow over the next 12-24 months, based on its fully market-based pricing and volume. We forecast the minimum DSCR, as calculated by S&P Global Ratings, will be 1.85x for the year ending Sept. 30, 2030 (excluding the last six-month period, for which the payment would be out of reserves).

We could lower the rating on AICTPL if we believe the minimum DSCR is likely to fall below 1.60x (excluding the last six-month period) under our base case, or if the downside resiliency weakens from the current moderate assessment. This could most likely occur if:

• Volume or tariffs deteriorate sharply from our assumptions;
• Operating challenges lead to significant and sustained disruption of AICTPL’s terminal-handling capacity; or
• Mundra port loses market share due to ramping up of capacity in local or regional competing ports.

We could also lower the rating if we lowered the sovereign credit rating on India (BBB/Stable/A-2) and AICTPL does not clear our sovereign default stress test.

We consider an upgrade to be unlikely as we expect AICTPL’s DSCR trajectory over the remaining debt tenor to decline and its sub-concession rights for CT3 is set to expire in February 2031.
Source: Platts