A rise in China’s shipments to the EU, ASEAN and Africa offset subdued flows to the US in 3Q25, supporting port cargo throughput growth of 6% yoy in 3Q25, up from 5% in the prior quarter, says Fitch Ratings. However, the slowdown in US-bound exports could moderate in 4Q25 following the recent agreement on a one-year pause in trade tensions.

China’s exports rose by 6.5% yoy in 3Q25, slightly higher than the 6.0% in 2Q25. The steep decline in shipments to the US – 27.3% yoy – was outweighed by robust demand from the ASEAN, Africa, EU and LatAm markets.

Container rates fell sharply in 3Q25, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index down by 52% yoy and the China Containerized Freight Index by 39% yoy on vessel oversupply and soft US-bound demand. Capacity redeployments have yet to absorb excess tonnage.

Fitch believes the one-year China-US agreement to pause tariff hikes helps alleviate near-term pressure and could support throughput flows through 2026, but short-term upside hinges on stable US demand and resilient intra-Asia flows. Diversified Chinese ports would be better positioned to absorb any volatility. That said, risks remain elevated given the temporary pause and the absence of a long-term resolution. A resumption of tariffs or weaker global demand could quickly cap throughput gains.
Source: Fitch Ratings