The tentative ceasefire between the United States and Iran has so far failed to translate into anything resembling a resumption of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with vessel movements remaining at a near-complete standstill in the 24 hours since the agreement was announced and the strategic waterway still firmly under Iranian military control.

Since the conflict began on February 28, an average of just seven ships per day have transited the strait, compared with pre-war traffic exceeding 130 vessels daily. That figure showed no meaningful improvement in the first day after the ceasefire was declared. Of the vessels that did attempt the passage, only around seven appeared to make the journey through, according to available tracking data.

The picture was further complicated by Iran’s decision to halt tanker transits entirely on Wednesday in response to Israeli attacks on its Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon. Iran’s Fars News Agency, which has close ties to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), reported that while two tankers had been granted permission to pass earlier in the day, movement was subsequently stopped: “Simultaneous with Israeli attacks on Lebanon, the tankers’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz has stopped.” Israel has separately confirmed that its military campaign in Lebanon falls outside the scope of any ceasefire arrangement with the US, raising serious questions about whether any genuine pause in hostilities is achievable.

Those doubts deepened further following an Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline, its only remaining crude export outlet after the closure of Hormuz. The pipeline had been diverting around 7m barrels per day from the kingdom’s eastern oil heartland to the Red Sea port of Yanbu; damage was being assessed, with flows expected to be affected and experts warning the attack could exacerbate what has already been described as the world’s worst energy crisis.

Against this volatile backdrop, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization issued a redrawn traffic separation scheme (pictured) for the strait, citing the risk of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone. The new routing directs inbound vessels through a northern corridor between the islands of Qeshm and Larak under IRGC supervision – while outbound traffic is funnelled via a southern path past Larak and within easy reach for Iranian naval escorts. A designated “danger zone” marked “transit prohibited” now encompasses the IMO-designated traffic separation scheme off the Musandam Peninsula, and the new chart appears to conflict with the recently-launched Omani-administered shipping lane at the strait’s southern edge.

Maritime security specialists Vanguard Tech assessed the development with measured scepticism. “The advisory formalises an already observable wartime transit pattern rather than establishing a wholly new routing arrangement,” the firm said. “The stated mine risk provides Iran with a plausible operational justification to channel vessels via the Larak corridor under IRGC-linked oversight. This supports Iran’s wider posture of controlled rather than unrestricted passage and increases its ability to monitor, verify and selectively manage vessel movements through the Strait.”

Into this uncertain environment stepped French president Emmanuel Macron, who announced on Wednesday that approximately 15 countries were preparing a coordinated defensive mission to help facilitate the safe resumption of shipping through the waterway, though specific operational details remain limited.

The container shipping industry, meanwhile, is urging patience. Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen acknowledged cautious optimism while warning customers that a return to normalcy was some way off. “Even if a ceasefire has now been agreed overnight, I would say that it’s fair to say that the conflict in the Middle East is still severely disrupting shipping, but also supply chains,” Jansen said, estimating the crisis was costing Hapag-Lloyd $50m to $60m per week. He said the carrier would likely open bookings into the upper Gulf “for selected markets” but only if the ceasefire held. Peer carrier Maersk similarly indicated more security assurances were needed before normal operations could resume.

Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand commented: “The ceasefire should come with a dose of reality because there is unlikely to be a rapid return to normality for container shipping in the Middle East,” he said. “The conflict has displaced 250,000 teu of weekly container shipping capacity and carriers have put a lot of effort and expense into establishing alternative routings. You do not suddenly toss that out of the window because there is a two-week ceasefire.”