Odfjell posts its 4Q25 results next week with figures expected to be in line compared to the 3Q25. The CPP market remains relatively strong, thus the there is a little incentive for the swing tonnage to move into chemicals. However, on behalf on weaker guidance of a close peer Stolt-Nielsen, we take a cautious tone for the Odfjell’s FY26 guidance as well, especially after the recent share appreciation and limited reaction post SNI report. We downgrade to Hold at a higher TP of NOK 150/sh. (145).

4Q25 expected to be in line with the previous quarter

We forecast total revenues of USD 290m, which is a bit higher than the consensus of USD 280m. Though, our estimated Adj. EBITDA of USD 96m and EBIT of USD 57m figures are both in line with the consensus. Notably, solid contract base should provide support for Odfjell Tankers in the 4Q25, while the company guided similar results QoQ as well. Odfjell Terminals are anticipated to provide stable underlying results in 4Q25 due to the strong contract coverage. Overall, 4Q25 figures are expected to be in line with 3Q25.

Market fundamentals should be supportive

The CPP market remains relatively strong throughout the first month of the year, thus the there is a little incentive for the swing tonnage to move into chemicals. The product tanker outlook is looking healthy in the near to medium term.

Cautious stance taken, following weaker guidance of Stolt-Nielsen

We believe the company is able to execute, outweighing the uncertainty in the market and with slightly adjusted estimates raise the Target Price to NOK 150/sh (NOK 145/sh previously). However, seeing rather low FY26 guidance from Stolt-Nielsen and having in mind the recent share appreciation, we decided to downgrade the recommendation to Hold.
Source: Norne Research